Magellan Midstream Partners LP (Magellan Midstream Partners LP) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $66.71 (As of Apr. 26, 2024)

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What is Magellan Midstream Partners LP Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-04-26), Magellan Midstream Partners LP's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $66.71.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Magellan Midstream Partners LP's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Magellan Midstream Partners LP is -3.43%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Magellan Midstream Partners LP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Dividends Based) Ratio of Magellan Midstream Partners LP was 0.71. The lowest was 0.30. And the median was 0.57.

MMP's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked ^*
in the Oil & Gas industry.
Industry Median: 1.11
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.

Magellan Midstream Partners LP Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Magellan Midstream Partners LP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Magellan Midstream Partners LP Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Magellan Midstream Partners LP Annual Data

Trend

Dec13

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

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100.64

85.56

83.75

Magellan Midstream Partners LP Quarterly Data
	Sep18	Dec18	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															66.95	70.60	-	-	-

Competitive Comparison of Magellan Midstream Partners LP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Oil & Gas Midstream subindustry, Magellan Midstream Partners LP's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Magellan Midstream Partners LP's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Oil & Gas Industry

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Magellan Midstream Partners LP's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Magellan Midstream Partners LP's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.

Magellan Midstream Partners LP Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.65%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 8.80%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Magellan Midstream Partners LP's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 8.80%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 8.80%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $4.509.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Magellan Midstream Partners LP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	=	Dividends per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.088)/(1+0.11) = 0.98018018018018
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Dividends per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Dividends per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

4.509

14.7938

66.71

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
	=	(66.71	-	69.00)	/	66.71
	=	-3.43 %

Magellan Midstream Partners LP (NYSE:MMP) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Magellan Midstream Partners LP Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

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Magellan Midstream Partners LP (Magellan Midstream Partners LP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Magellan Midstream Partners LP (NYSE:MMP) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Comparable Companies

PAA WES TRGP AM ENLC DTM ETRN FRO PAGP CEQP TSX:ENB EPD ET WMB LNG KMI TSX:TRP MPLX OKE CQP

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

One Williams Center, P.O. Box 22186, Tulsa, OK, USA, 74121-2186

Website

https://www.magellanlp.com

Magellan Midstream Partners is a master limited partnership that operates pipelines and storage terminals in the Central and Eastern United States. Its assets transport, store, and distribute refined petroleum products and crude and earn a fee-based stream of cash flows. Assets include the country's longest petroleum pipeline network and several crude oil pipelines. Refined products make about 70% of operating margin, with the remainder mainly crude-oil pipelines.

Executives

James R Hoskin	officer: Senior Vice President	ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, SUITE 2800, TULSA OK 74172
James R Montague	director	FIVE RADNOR CORPORATE CENTER, SUITE 500, RADNOR PA 19087
Kyle T Krshka	officer: Senior Vice President	ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, SUITE 2800, TULSA OK 74172
Sivasankaran Somasundaram	director	C/O APERGY CORPORATION, 2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD, BLD 4, FL 9, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Melanie A Little	officer: Senior Vice President	ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, SUITE 2800, TULSA OK 74172
Mark B Roles	officer: Senior Vice President	ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, SUITE 2800, TULSA OK 74172
Lisa J Korner	officer: Vice President	ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, MD 28-1, TULSA OK 74172
Chansoo Joung	director	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Jeff R Selvidge	officer: Senior Vice President	ONE WILLIAMS CENTER SUITE 2800, TULSA OK 74172
Douglas J May	officer: Senior Vice President	ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, SUITE 4100, TULSA OK 74172
Robert G Croyle	director	ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, SUITE 2800, TULSA OK 74172
Michael C Pearson	officer: Senior Vice President	ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, SUITE 2800, TULSA OK 74172
Jeffrey L Holman	officer: Senior Vice President & CFO	ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, TULSA OK 74172
Michael N Mears	officer: Vice President	ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, MD 28-1, TULSA OK 74172
Lori Gobillot	director	5103 CITY WEST BLVD., 4TH FLOOR, HOUSTON TX 77042