Shell Midstream Partners LP (NYSE:SHLX) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

: $12.57 (As of Today)

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As of today (2023-10-04), Shell Midstream Partners LP's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $12.57.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Shell Midstream Partners LP's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Shell Midstream Partners LP is -25.86%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Shell Midstream Partners LP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

SHLX's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked ^*
in the Oil & Gas industry.
Industry Median: 0.59
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.

Shell Midstream Partners LP Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Shell Midstream Partners LP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Shell Midstream Partners LP Annual Data

Trend

Dec12

Dec13

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Shell Midstream Partners LP Quarterly Data
	Sep17	Dec17	Mar18	Jun18	Sep18	Dec18	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)																-	-	-	-	-

Competitive Comparison

For the Oil & Gas Midstream subindustry, Shell Midstream Partners LP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Annual Data Quarterly Data

Shell Midstream Partners LP Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Shell Midstream Partners LP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Shell Midstream Partners LP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.

Shell Midstream Partners LP Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Shell Midstream Partners LP's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $1.089.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Shell Midstream Partners LP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	=	Dividends per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Dividends per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Dividends per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

1.089

11.5406

12.57

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
	=	(12.57	-	15.82)	/	12.57
	=	-25.86 %

Shell Midstream Partners LP (NYSE:SHLX) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Shell Midstream Partners LP Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

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Shell Midstream Partners LP (NYSE:SHLX) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Shell Midstream Partners LP (NYSE:SHLX) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

150 North Dairy Ashford Road, A0482-A, Houston, TX, USA, 77079

Website

http://www.shellmidstreampartners.com

Shell Midstream Partners LP is a US-based limited partnership that is formed to own, operate, develop and acquire pipelines and other midstream assets. The company holds an interest in several entities which own crude oil, refined products and natural gas pipelines, and crude tank storage and terminal system. It provides a transportation and storage facility to deliver refined products from Gulf Coast markets to demand centers. The company earns revenue through the long-term transportation agreements by charging fees for the transportation of crude oil and refined products through its pipelines.

Executives

Sopc Holdings West Llc	10 percent owner	150 N. DAIRY ASHFORD RD., HOUSTON TX 77079
Fierro A Carlos	director	910 LOUISIANA STREET, HOUSTON TX 77002
Gregory T. Mouras	officer: Vice President, Operations	P.O. BOX 61933, NEW ORLEANS LA 70161
Cynthia V. Hablinski	director	150 N. DAIRY ASHFORD, HOUSTON TX 77079
Sean Guillory	officer: Vice President, Commercial	150 N. DAIRY ASHFORD, HOUSTON TX 77079
David A. Connolly	director	1000 MAIN STREET, LEVEL 12, HOUSTON TX 77002
Stanley Jesse C. H.	officer: Vice President, Operations	150 N. DAIRY ASHFORD, HOUSTON TX 77079
Anne C. Anderson	director	150 N. DAIRY ASHFORD, HOUSTON TX 77079
James J Bender	director	1601 UTICA AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 900, ST. LOUIS PARK MN 55416
Nick Arzymanow	officer: Controller	150 N. DAIRY ASHFORD, HOUSTON TX 77079
Brenda Stout	director	150 N. DAIRY ASHFORD ROAD, HOUSTON TX 77079
Curtis R Frasier	director	910 LOUISIANA STREET, HOUSTON TX 77002
Steven Ledbetter	officer: Vice President - Commercial	150 N. DAIRY ASHFORD ROAD, HOUSTON TX 77079
Marcel Teunissen	director	150 N. DAIRY ASHFORD ROAD, HOUSTON TX 77079
Elaine Mccown	officer: Controller	ONE SHELL PLAZA, 910 LOUISIANA STREET, HOUSTON TX 77002