Mesa Air Group (Mesa Air Group) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF : $10.92 (As of Apr. 27, 2024)

Mesa Air Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart

Mesa Air Group Annual Data
	Trend	Sep07	Sep08	Sep16	Sep17	Sep18	Sep19	Sep20	Sep21	Sep22	Sep23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF		Get a 7-Day Free Trial					14.57	20.90	19.08	16.70	10.92

Mesa Air Group Quarterly Data
	Dec18	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															16.70	16.06	13.74	12.10	10.92

Competitive Comparison of Mesa Air Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

For the Airlines subindustry, Mesa Air Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Mesa Air Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution in the Transportation Industry

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, Mesa Air Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Mesa Air Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.

Mesa Air Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Mesa Air Group's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $30.11.

Mesa Air Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Mesa Air Group  (NAS:MESA) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Mesa Air Group's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Mesa Air Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

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Mesa Air Group (Mesa Air Group) Business Description