MESA (Mesa Air Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Mesa Air Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Mesa Air Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Mesa Air Group Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Mesa Air Group Inc (NAS:MESA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

M2A:Germany

Address

410 North 44th Street, Suite 700, Phoenix, AZ, USA, 85008

Website

https://www.mesa-air.com

Mesa Air Group Inc is a regional air carrier providing scheduled passenger service. It provides scheduled passenger service to 86 cities in 36 states, the District of Columbia, Canada, Cuba, and Mexico as well as cargo services out of Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport. Flights are operated as American Eagle, United Express, or DHL Express flights to the terms of capacity purchase agreements with American and United and a flight services agreement with DHL. The business has a presence in domestic hubs and cities, including Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, and Washington-Dulles and other regions.

Executives

Jonathan Ireland	director	410 NORTH 44TH STREET, SUITE 700, PHOENIX AZ 85008
Daniel Jerome Mchugh	director	410 N 44TH ST STE 700, PHOENIX AZ 85008
Daniel Torque Zubeck	officer: CFO & Treasurer	16832 12TH AVE SW, NORMANDY WA 98166
Jonathan G Ornstein	director, officer: Chairman & CEO	410 N. 44TH STREET, SUITE 700, PHOENIX AZ 85008
Mitchell I Gordon	director	C/O OCEANTECH ACQUISITIONS I CORP, 515 MADISON AVENUE, 8TH FL - SUITE 8133, NEW YORK NY 10022
Brian S Gillman	officer: General Counsel	410 N. 44TH STREET, SUITE 700, PHOENIX AZ 85008
Spyridon Skiados	director	410 N. 44TH STREET, SUITE 700, PHOENIX AZ 85008
Harvey W Schiller	director	410 N. 44TH STREET, SUITE 700, PHOENIX AZ 85008
Michael Lotz	officer: President and COO	410 N. 44TH STREET, SUITE 700, PHOENIX AZ 85008
Ellen N. Artist	director	410 N. 44TH STREET, SUITE 700, PHOENIX AZ 85008
Dana J Lockhart	director	410 N. 44TH STREET, SUITE 700, PHOENIX AZ 85008
Bradford R Rich	officer: EVP & Chief Operating Officer	MESA AIR GROUP, 410 NORTH 44TH STREET, PHOENIX AZ 85008
Michael L Ferverda	officer: President, Freedom Airlines	410 N. 44TH STREET, SUITE 700, PHOENIX AZ 85008
G Grant Lyon	director	410 N. 44TH STREET, SUITE 700, PHOENIX AZ 85008
Daniel Joseph Altobello	director	6550 ROCK SPRING DR, SUITE 550, BETHESDA MD 20817