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United Parcel Service Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

: $73.45 (As of Today)
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Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2022-08-09), United Parcel Service's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $73.45. The stock price of United Parcel Service is $196.09. Therefore, United Parcel Service's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 2.7.

The historical rank and industry rank for United Parcel Service's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

UPS' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.27   Med: 2.2   Max: 4.47
Current: 2.67

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of United Parcel Service was 4.47. The lowest was 1.27. And the median was 2.20.

UPS's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than
82.05% of 663 companies
in the Transportation industry
Industry Median: 0.96 vs UPS: 2.67

United Parcel Service Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for United Parcel Service's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

United Parcel Service Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 36.66 42.98 38.07 37.68 62.25

United Parcel Service Quarterly Data
Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 55.18 59.23 62.25 71.32 73.45

Competitive Comparison

For the Integrated Freight & Logistics subindustry, United Parcel Service's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

United Parcel Service Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Distribution

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, United Parcel Service's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where United Parcel Service's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF falls into.



United Parcel Service Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get United Parcel Service's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $4,635.04.

United Parcel Service's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Jun22)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(11.069452086404*4635.04+16289*0.8)/876.000
=73.45

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


United Parcel Service  (NYSE:UPS) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

United Parcel Service's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=196.09/73.445836984662
=2.67

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


United Parcel Service Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of United Parcel Service's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


United Parcel Service Business Description

United Parcel Service logo
Address
55 Glenlake Parkway, N.E. Atlanta, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30328
As the world's largest parcel delivery company, UPS manages a massive fleet of more than 500 planes and 100,000 vehicles, along with many hundreds of sorting facilities, to deliver an average of about 25 million packages per day to residences and businesses across the globe. UPS' domestic U.S. package operations generate 62% of total revenue while international package makes up 20%. Air and ocean freight forwarding, truckload brokerage, and contract logistics make up the remainder.
Executives
Ford Darrell L officer: Chief Human Resources Officer 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE ATLANTA GA 30328
Johnson Kathleen E director 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE ATLANTA GA 30328
Stokes Russell director 5 NECCO STREET BOSTON MA 02210
Hewett Wayne M. director 5 WESTBROOK CORPORATE CENTER WESTCHESTER IL 60154
Boratto Eva C director 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE ATLANTA GA 30328
Lane Laura J officer: Chief Corp Affairs & Comms Off 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE ATLANTA GA 30328
Hwang Angela director 235 EAST 42ND STREET ATTN: CORPORATE SECRETARY NEW YORK NY 10017
Newman Brian officer: Chief Financial Officer 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE ATLANTA GA 30328
Thomas Charlene A officer: Chief Human Resources Officer 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE ATLANTA GA 30328
Tome Carol B director 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE ATLANTA GA 30328
Markham Rudy director 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY NE ATLANTA GA 30328
Burns Michael J director POSTFACH STEIZENSTRASSE 4 CH-8152 GLATTBRUGG ZURICH SWITZERLAND V8 00000
Stankey John T director 208 S. AKARD ST. DALLAS TX 75202
Johnson William R director UNITED PARCEL SERVICE, INC. 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE ATLANTA GA 30328
Moison Franck J director C/O COLGATE PALMOLIVE CO 300 PARK AVE 15TH FL NEW YORK NY 10022

United Parcel Service Headlines

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