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Source Energy Services (TSX:SHLE) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF : C$27.59 (As of Apr. 28, 2024)


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What is Source Energy Services Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF?

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-04-28), Source Energy Services's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is C$27.59. The stock price of Source Energy Services is C$16.70. Therefore, Source Energy Services's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.6.

The historical rank and industry rank for Source Energy Services's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

TSX:SHLE' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.21   Med: 0.22   Max: 0.96
Current: 0.61

During the past 10 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Source Energy Services was 0.96. The lowest was 0.21. And the median was 0.22.

TSX:SHLE's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than
67.16% of 679 companies
in the Oil & Gas industry
Industry Median: 0.86 vs TSX:SHLE: 0.61

Source Energy Services Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Source Energy Services's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Source Energy Services Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart

Source Energy Services Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - 1.67 9.12 27.59

Source Energy Services Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 9.12 12.80 14.95 19.19 27.59

Competitive Comparison of Source Energy Services's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

For the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services subindustry, Source Energy Services's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Source Energy Services's Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution in the Oil & Gas Industry

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Source Energy Services's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Source Energy Services's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.



Source Energy Services Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Source Energy Services's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = C$31.32.

Source Energy Services's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Dec23)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(9.5203515959648*31.3192+169.13*0.8)/15.710
=27.59

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Source Energy Services  (TSX:SHLE) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Source Energy Services's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=16.70/27.592221241524
=0.61

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Source Energy Services Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

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Source Energy Services (TSX:SHLE) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
500, 1060 - 7th Street SW, Calgary, AB, CAN, T2R 0C4
Source Energy Services Ltd is a Canada based company engaged in the integrated production and distribution of frac sand as well as the distribution of other bulk oil and gas well completion materials that aren't produced by Source. It provides customers with an end-to-end solution for frac sand supported by its Wisconsin mines and processing facilities, its Western Canadian terminal network and its last mile logistics capabilities. The company also offers storage and logistics services for other bulk oil and gas well completion materials and has developed Sahara, a proprietary wellsite mobile sand storage and handling system. The geographical segments of the group are the US Operations and Canadian Operations.
Executives
Derren James Newell Senior Officer

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