Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Source Energy Services's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.10%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Source Energy Services (TSX:SHLE) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Source Energy Services Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
TSX:SHLE vs SLB, BKR, HAL: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services subindustry, Source Energy Services's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Source Energy Services Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Oil & Gas Industry
For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Source Energy Services's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Source Energy Services's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Source Energy Services Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-6.93
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.10% mean?
Source Energy Services (TSX:SHLE) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.10% as of Jun. 26, 2026.
Is Source Energy Services' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Source Energy Services' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.10%. Overall, Source Energy Services has a GF Score™ of 69/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Source Energy Services' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to SLB and BKR?
Source Energy Services' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.10% can be compared against companies in the Oil & Gas industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for an Oil & Gas company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Oil & Gas industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Source Energy Services's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.10%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Source Energy Services stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Source Energy Services (TSX:SHLE) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is C$12.84, compared to a current price of C$13.62 — trading 6.1% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.10%. Source Energy Services' overall GF Score™ is 69/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Source Energy Services (TSX:SHLE), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.10% as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Source Energy Services (TSX:SHLE) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Source Energy Services stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of C$13.62 is trading 6.1% above its estimated GF Value™ of C$12.84.
GuruFocus considers Source Energy Services to be Fairly Valued.
Key valuation signals for TSX:SHLE:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.10%
GF Value™: C$12.84 vs. price of C$13.62 (6.1% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the TSX:SHLE stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Source Energy Services Ltd is a Canada-based company engaged in the integrated production and distribution of frac sand as well as the distribution of other bulk oil and gas well completion materials that aren't produced by Source. It provides customers with an end-to-end solution for frac sand supported by its Wisconsin, United States, and Peace River, Alberta, Canada mines and processing facilities, its Western Canadian terminal network, and its last-mile logistics capabilities, including its trucking operations, and Sahara, a proprietary well site mobile sand storage and handling system. The geographical segments of the group are the USA Operations and Canadian Operations.
69GF Score
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