Bapcor (ASX:BAP) Beneish M-Score: -2.77 (As of Jun. 25, 2026)


ASX:BAP Bapcor Ltd ASX:BAP
53 GF Score
Price A$0.41
GF Value A$3.53
Valuation Possible Value Trap
! 8 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Bapcor Beneish M-Score?

Bapcor ASX:BAP +3.85% 53 Beneish M-Score is -2.77 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus rates ASX:BAP with a GF Score™ of 53/100 and a GF Value™ of A$3.53 (Possible Value Trap). The stock has 8 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,087 Retail - Cyclical companies, Bapcor ranks better than 64.58% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.77 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Bapcor's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

ASX:BAP' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.87   Med: -2.38   Max: -1.38
Current: -2.77

During the past 12 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Bapcor was -1.38. The lowest was -2.87. And the median was -2.38.


Bapcor Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Bapcor's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Bapcor Beneish M-Score Chart

Bapcor Annual Data
Trend Jun16 Jun17 Jun18 Jun19 Jun20 Jun21 Jun22 Jun23 Jun24 Jun25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.33 -2.42 -2.61 -2.87 -2.77

Bapcor Semi-Annual Data
Jun16 Dec16 Jun17 Dec17 Jun18 Dec18 Jun19 Dec19 Jun20 Dec20 Jun21 Dec21 Jun22 Dec22 Jun23 Dec23 Jun24 Dec24 Jun25 Dec25
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 0.00 -2.87 0.00 -2.77 0.00

ASX:BAP vs CASY, WSM, ULTA: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Specialty Retail subindustry, Bapcor's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Bapcor Beneish M-Score vs Retail - Cyclical Industry

For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Bapcor's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Bapcor's Beneish M-Score falls into.


ASX:BAP
53GF Score
Bapcor Ltd ASX:BAP
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Bapcor Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Bapcor for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.9666+0.528 * 1.0007+0.404 * 1.0519+0.892 * 0.97+0.115 * 0.8432
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9685+4.679 * -0.051081-0.327 * 1.001
=-2.77

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Jun25) TTM:Last Year (Jun24) TTM:
Total Receivables was A$172 Mil.
Revenue was A$1,976 Mil.
Gross Profit was A$895 Mil.
Total Current Assets was A$838 Mil.
Total Assets was A$1,827 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was A$294 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was A$95 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was A$524 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was A$366 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was A$587 Mil.
Net Income was A$28 Mil.
Gross Profit was A$-12 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was A$134 Mil.
Total Receivables was A$183 Mil.
Revenue was A$2,037 Mil.
Gross Profit was A$924 Mil.
Total Current Assets was A$851 Mil.
Total Assets was A$1,905 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was A$365 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was A$94 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was A$558 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was A$364 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was A$628 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(171.796 / 1975.767) / (183.23 / 2036.938)
=0.086952 / 0.089954
=0.9666

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(923.596 / 2036.938) / (895.233 / 1975.767)
=0.453424 / 0.453107
=1.0007

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (837.664 + 294.29) / 1827.122) / (1 - (850.556 + 365.269) / 1904.805)
=0.380472 / 0.361706
=1.0519

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=1975.767 / 2036.938
=0.97

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(94.467 / (94.467 + 365.269)) / (94.827 / (94.827 + 294.29))
=0.205481 / 0.243698
=0.8432

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(524.321 / 1975.767) / (558.135 / 2036.938)
=0.265376 / 0.274007
=0.9685

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((586.92 + 366.25) / 1827.122) / ((628.378 + 364.297) / 1904.805)
=0.521678 / 0.521143
=1.001

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(28.139 - -12.156 - 133.626) / 1827.122
=-0.051081

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Bapcor has a M-score of -2.77 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.77 mean?
Bapcor (ASX:BAP) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.77 as of Jun. 25, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Bapcor and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Bapcor ranks #385 out of 1087 companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry, placing it in the top 35.4%.
Is Bapcor's Beneish M-Score too high?
Bapcor's current Beneish M-Score is -2.77. Based on the distribution chart, Bapcor ranks #385 out of 1087 companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Bapcor has a GF Score™ of 53/100 and is considered Possible Value Trap, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Bapcor's Beneish M-Score compare to CASY and WSM?
According to the Retail - Cyclical industry distribution chart, Bapcor ranks #385 out of 1087 companies for Beneish M-Score. This puts Bapcor in the upper half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Retail - Cyclical company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Retail - Cyclical industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Bapcor and its competitors. Bapcor's current Beneish M-Score is -2.77. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Bapcor stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Bapcor (ASX:BAP) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is A$3.53, compared to a current price of A$0.41 — trading 88.5% below its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.77. Bapcor's overall GF Score™ is 53/100 with 8 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Bapcor (ASX:BAP), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.77 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Bapcor (ASX:BAP) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Bapcor stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of A$0.41 is trading 88.5% below its estimated GF Value™ of A$3.53. GuruFocus considers Bapcor to be Possible Value Trap.

Key valuation signals for ASX:BAP:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.77
  • GF Value™: A$3.53 vs. price of A$0.41 (88.5% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 53/100 with 8 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the ASX:BAP stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Bapcor Business Description

Address 127-139, Link Road, Melbourne Airport, Melbourne, VIC, AUS, 3045
Bapcor is one of the largest automotive spare parts and accessories businesses in Australia and New Zealand. The firm principally distributes automotive spare parts and accessories to independent and chain mechanic workshops in Australia and New Zealand through Burson-branded stores. Bapcor also operates a retail automotive spare parts and accessories business in Australia, catering to the do-it-yourself customer, under the AutoPro and Autobarn brands. The networks business is a brand owner and wholesaler of specialized parts.
53GF Score

Get the complete analysis for ASX:BAP

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

A$0.41
Price
A$3.53
GF Value