South32 (ASX:S32) Beneish M-Score: -2.65 (As of Jun. 24, 2026)


ASX:S32 South32 Ltd ASX:S32
71 GF Score
Price A$4.06
GF Value A$3.71
Valuation Fairly Valued
! 4 Warning Signs
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What is South32 Beneish M-Score?

South32 ASX:S32 -1.93% 71 Beneish M-Score is -2.65 as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus rates ASX:S32 with a GF Score™ of 71/100 and a GF Value™ of A$3.71 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 4 warning signs investors should review. Among 685 Metals & Mining companies, South32 ranks better than 68.18% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.65 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for South32's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

ASX:S32' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.61   Med: -2.84   Max: -1.71
Current: -2.65

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of South32 was -1.71. The lowest was -3.61. And the median was -2.84.


South32 Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for South32's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

South32 Beneish M-Score Chart

South32 Annual Data
Trend Jun16 Jun17 Jun18 Jun19 Jun20 Jun21 Jun22 Jun23 Jun24 Jun25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -3.28 -1.71 -2.33 -3.11 -2.65

South32 Semi-Annual Data
Jun16 Dec16 Jun17 Dec17 Jun18 Dec18 Jun19 Dec19 Jun20 Dec20 Jun21 Dec21 Jun22 Dec22 Jun23 Dec23 Jun24 Dec24 Jun25 Dec25
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 0.00 -3.11 0.00 -2.65 0.00

South32 Beneish M-Score Competitor Comparison

For the Other Industrial Metals & Mining subindustry, South32's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


South32 Beneish M-Score vs Metals & Mining Industry

For the Metals & Mining industry and Basic Materials sector, South32's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where South32's Beneish M-Score falls into.


ASX:S32
71GF Score
South32 Ltd ASX:S32
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

South32 Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of South32 for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0868+0.528 * 0.7726+0.404 * 1.0862+0.892 * 1.1975+0.115 * 1.222
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1+4.679 * -0.081737-0.327 * 0.955
=-2.65

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Jun25) TTM:Last Year (Jun24) TTM:
Total Receivables was A$1,243 Mil.
Revenue was A$8,878 Mil.
Gross Profit was A$3,872 Mil.
Total Current Assets was A$5,835 Mil.
Total Assets was A$21,085 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was A$9,875 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was A$785 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was A$0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was A$2,405 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was A$2,100 Mil.
Net Income was A$327 Mil.
Gross Profit was A$0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was A$2,051 Mil.
Total Receivables was A$955 Mil.
Revenue was A$7,414 Mil.
Gross Profit was A$2,498 Mil.
Total Current Assets was A$6,625 Mil.
Total Assets was A$21,453 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was A$9,794 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was A$968 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was A$0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was A$2,777 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was A$2,023 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(1242.624 / 8878.08) / (954.804 / 7414.038)
=0.139965 / 0.128783
=1.0868

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(2498.454 / 7414.038) / (3872.256 / 8878.08)
=0.33699 / 0.436159
=0.7726

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (5835.264 + 9874.944) / 21084.672) / (1 - (6624.894 + 9793.518) / 21452.97)
=0.254899 / 0.234679
=1.0862

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=8878.08 / 7414.038
=1.1975

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(968.358 / (968.358 + 9793.518)) / (784.896 / (784.896 + 9874.944))
=0.08998 / 0.073631
=1.222

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(0 / 8878.08) / (0 / 7414.038)
=0 / 0
=1

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((2099.712 + 2405.376) / 21084.672) / ((2022.558 + 2777.064) / 21452.97)
=0.213666 / 0.223728
=0.955

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(327.168 - 0 - 2050.56) / 21084.672
=-0.081737

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

South32 has a M-score of -2.65 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.65 mean?
South32 (ASX:S32) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.65 as of Jun. 24, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on South32 and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, South32 ranks #218 out of 685 companies in the Metals & Mining industry, placing it in the top 31.8%.
Is South32's Beneish M-Score too high?
South32's current Beneish M-Score is -2.65. Based on the distribution chart, South32 ranks #218 out of 685 companies in the Metals & Mining industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, South32 has a GF Score™ of 71/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does South32's Beneish M-Score compare to competitors?
According to the Metals & Mining industry distribution chart, South32 ranks #218 out of 685 companies for Beneish M-Score. This puts South32 in the upper half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Metals & Mining company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Metals & Mining industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on South32 and its competitors. South32's current Beneish M-Score is -2.65. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is South32 stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, South32 (ASX:S32) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is A$3.71, compared to a current price of A$4.06 — trading 9.4% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.65. South32's overall GF Score™ is 71/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For South32 (ASX:S32), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.65 as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is South32 (ASX:S32) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, South32 stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of A$4.06 is trading 9.4% above its estimated GF Value™ of A$3.71. GuruFocus considers South32 to be Fairly Valued.

Key valuation signals for ASX:S32:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.65
  • GF Value™: A$3.71 vs. price of A$4.06 (9.4% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 71/100 with 4 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the ASX:S32 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


South32 Business Description

Address 100 Street Georges Terrace, Level 2, Perth, WA, AUS, 6000
South32 was born of the demerger of noncore assets from BHP in 2015. Its major operations include alumina businesses in Australia and Brazil, aluminum in Brazil, South Africa, and Mozambique, and manganese businesses in Australia and South Africa. It sold New South Wales metallurgical coal in August 2024 and the Cerro Matoso nickel mine in Colombia in December 2025. It also owns the Cannington silver/lead/zinc mine in Queensland. Its Australian manganese operations deliver high returns, but have a relatively short reserve life. The company acquired Arizona Mining, which brings with it the high-grade and likely low-cost Taylor project in the US, and also entered the copper business in 2022 via the purchase of a 45% stake in the Sierra Gorda mine in Chile.
71GF Score

Get the complete analysis for ASX:S32

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

A$4.06
Price
A$3.71
GF Value