Alpargatas (BSP:ALPA4) Beneish M-Score: -2.41 (As of Jun. 26, 2026)


BSP:ALPA4 Alpargatas SA BSP:ALPA4
68 GF Score
Price R$12.42
GF Value R$8.72
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 2 Warning Signs
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What is Alpargatas Beneish M-Score?

Alpargatas BSP:ALPA4 -5.34% 68 Beneish M-Score is -2.41 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus rates BSP:ALPA4 with a GF Score™ of 68/100 and a GF Value™ of R$8.72 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 2 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,001 Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories companies, Alpargatas ranks worse than 58.04% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.41 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Alpargatas's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

BSP:ALPA4' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -4.65   Med: -2.46   Max: -1.38
Current: -2.41

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Alpargatas was -1.38. The lowest was -4.65. And the median was -2.46.


Alpargatas Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Alpargatas's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Alpargatas Beneish M-Score Chart

Alpargatas Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.34 -1.38 -4.62 -2.90 -2.41

Alpargatas Quarterly Data
Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.69 -2.56 -2.44 -2.41 -2.41

BSP:ALPA4 vs NKE, DECK, ONON: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Footwear & Accessories subindustry, Alpargatas's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Alpargatas Beneish M-Score vs Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories Industry

For the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Alpargatas's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Alpargatas's Beneish M-Score falls into.


BSP:ALPA4
68GF Score
Alpargatas SA BSP:ALPA4
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Alpargatas Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Alpargatas for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.1882+0.528 * 0.8514+0.404 * 1.05+0.892 * 1.1014+0.115 * 0.9557
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9084+4.679 * -0.013892-0.327 * 1.2571
=-2.41

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was R$1,231 Mil.
Revenue was 1229.46 + 1255.228 + 1115.8 + 1101.36 = R$4,702 Mil.
Gross Profit was 646.844 + 632.658 + 585.715 + 602.789 = R$2,468 Mil.
Total Current Assets was R$3,022 Mil.
Total Assets was R$6,287 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was R$1,518 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was R$259 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was R$1,137 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was R$1,750 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was R$961 Mil.
Net Income was 162.809 + 197.253 + 171.302 + 87.892 = R$619 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = R$0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 261.073 + 102.923 + 278.314 + 64.286 = R$707 Mil.
Total Receivables was R$941 Mil.
Revenue was 1092.486 + 1122.411 + 1037.603 + 1016.497 = R$4,269 Mil.
Gross Profit was 560.484 + 373.355 + 494.536 + 479.424 = R$1,908 Mil.
Total Current Assets was R$3,126 Mil.
Total Assets was R$6,381 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was R$1,566 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was R$253 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was R$1,137 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was R$1,443 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was R$746 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(1231.446 / 4701.848) / (940.957 / 4268.997)
=0.261907 / 0.220416
=1.1882

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(1907.799 / 4268.997) / (2468.006 / 4701.848)
=0.446896 / 0.524901
=0.8514

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (3021.735 + 1517.87) / 6287.102) / (1 - (3126.144 + 1566.046) / 6381.47)
=0.27795 / 0.264716
=1.05

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=4701.848 / 4268.997
=1.1014

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(253.428 / (253.428 + 1566.046)) / (258.975 / (258.975 + 1517.87))
=0.139286 / 0.14575
=0.9557

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(1137.096 / 4701.848) / (1136.563 / 4268.997)
=0.24184 / 0.266237
=0.9084

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((961.393 + 1749.586) / 6287.102) / ((745.996 + 1442.929) / 6381.47)
=0.431197 / 0.343013
=1.2571

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(619.256 - 0 - 706.596) / 6287.102
=-0.013892

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Alpargatas has a M-score of -2.41 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.41 mean?
Alpargatas (BSP:ALPA4) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.41 as of Jun. 26, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Alpargatas and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Alpargatas ranks #581 out of 1001 companies in the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry, placing it in the top 58%.
Is Alpargatas' Beneish M-Score too high?
Alpargatas' current Beneish M-Score is -2.41. Based on the distribution chart, Alpargatas ranks #581 out of 1001 companies in the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Alpargatas has a GF Score™ of 68/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Alpargatas' Beneish M-Score compare to NKE and DECK?
According to the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry distribution chart, Alpargatas ranks #581 out of 1001 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places Alpargatas in the lower half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Alpargatas and its competitors. Alpargatas's current Beneish M-Score is -2.41. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Alpargatas stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Alpargatas (BSP:ALPA4) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is R$8.72, compared to a current price of R$12.42 — trading 42.4% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.41. Alpargatas' overall GF Score™ is 68/100 with 2 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Alpargatas (BSP:ALPA4), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.41 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Alpargatas (BSP:ALPA4) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Alpargatas stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of R$12.42 is trading 42.4% above its estimated GF Value™ of R$8.72. GuruFocus considers Alpargatas to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for BSP:ALPA4:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.41
  • GF Value™: R$8.72 vs. price of R$12.42 (42.4% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 68/100 with 2 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the BSP:ALPA4 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Alpargatas Business Description

Other Exchanges ALPA3:Brazil
Address United Nations Avenue, Vila Gertrudes, 14.261, Sao Paulo, SP, BRA, 04794-00
Alpargatas SA primarily manufactures footwear, apparel, and sports items. Brands the company owns or manufactures under license include Havaianas, dupe, Osklen, Mizuno, Megga, and Sete Leguas. Alpargatas reaches consumers through third-party retailers and through its own retail stores. Most of the company's sales are in Brazil and Argentina, with sales in Brazil accounting for more than half of the company's total sales. Remaining revenue is generated by the company's subsidiaries in Europe and the United States, and through direct exports.
68GF Score

Get the complete analysis for BSP:ALPA4

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

R$12.42
Price
R$8.72
GF Value