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UPM-Kymmene Oyj (CHIX:UPMH) Beneish M-Score : -3.02 (As of Dec. 16, 2024)


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What is UPM-Kymmene Oyj Beneish M-Score?

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -3.02 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for UPM-Kymmene Oyj's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

CHIX:UPMh' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.02   Med: -2.63   Max: -2.05
Current: -3.02

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of UPM-Kymmene Oyj was -2.05. The lowest was -3.02. And the median was -2.63.


UPM-Kymmene Oyj Beneish M-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for UPM-Kymmene Oyj's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

UPM-Kymmene Oyj Beneish M-Score Chart

UPM-Kymmene Oyj Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.98 -2.71 -2.40 -2.14 -3.02

UPM-Kymmene Oyj Quarterly Data
Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - -3.02 - - -

Competitive Comparison of UPM-Kymmene Oyj's Beneish M-Score

For the Paper & Paper Products subindustry, UPM-Kymmene Oyj's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


UPM-Kymmene Oyj's Beneish M-Score Distribution in the Forest Products Industry

For the Forest Products industry and Basic Materials sector, UPM-Kymmene Oyj's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where UPM-Kymmene Oyj's Beneish M-Score falls into.



UPM-Kymmene Oyj Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of UPM-Kymmene Oyj for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.8648+0.528 * 1.2475+0.404 * 0.9868+0.892 * 0.8925+0.115 * 0.7368
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9917+4.679 * -0.101824-0.327 * 0.826
=-3.02

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec23) TTM:Last Year (Dec22) TTM:
Total Receivables was €1,309 Mil.
Revenue was €10,460 Mil.
Gross Profit was €3,070 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €4,559 Mil.
Total Assets was €18,473 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €7,736 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €660 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €886 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €2,441 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €2,962 Mil.
Net Income was €388 Mil.
Gross Profit was €0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was €2,269 Mil.
Total Receivables was €1,696 Mil.
Revenue was €11,720 Mil.
Gross Profit was €4,291 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €7,232 Mil.
Total Assets was €22,207 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €7,449 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €458 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €1,001 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €3,523 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €4,340 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(1309 / 10460) / (1696 / 11720)
=0.125143 / 0.14471
=0.8648

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(4291 / 11720) / (3070 / 10460)
=0.366126 / 0.293499
=1.2475

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (4559 + 7736) / 18473) / (1 - (7232 + 7449) / 22207)
=0.334434 / 0.338902
=0.9868

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=10460 / 11720
=0.8925

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(458 / (458 + 7449)) / (660 / (660 + 7736))
=0.057923 / 0.078609
=0.7368

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(886 / 10460) / (1001 / 11720)
=0.084704 / 0.08541
=0.9917

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((2962 + 2441) / 18473) / ((4340 + 3523) / 22207)
=0.292481 / 0.354078
=0.826

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(388 - 0 - 2269) / 18473
=-0.101824

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

UPM-Kymmene Oyj has a M-score of -3.02 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.


UPM-Kymmene Oyj Beneish M-Score Related Terms

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UPM-Kymmene Oyj Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
Alvar Aallon katu 1, P.O. Box 380, Helsinki, FIN, FI-00100
UPM-Kymmene Oyj is a Finnish paper and biomaterials company. The company produces products related to the forestry industry including paper, pulp, and plywood. UPM is also a major electricity generator in Finland and is one of the global producers of self-adhesive labeling materials. It delivers responsible solutions and innovation for a future beyond fossils across six business areas: UPM Fibres, UPM Energy, UPM Raflatac, UPM Specialty Papers, UPM Communication Papers, and UPM Plywood. Geographically, the company has operational footprints in Sweden, Finland, the Netherlands, and other regions.

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