Guotai Haitong Securities Co (FRA:153A) Beneish M-Score: -1.94 (As of Jun. 26, 2026)


FRA:153A Guotai Haitong Securities Co Ltd FRA:153A
62 GF Score
Price €1.62
GF Value €1.68
Valuation Fairly Valued
! 4 Warning Signs
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What is Guotai Haitong Securities Co Beneish M-Score?

Guotai Haitong Securities Co FRA:153A +1.25% 62 Beneish M-Score is -1.94 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus rates FRA:153A with a GF Score™ of 62/100 and a GF Value™ of €1.68 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 4 warning signs investors should review. Among 702 Capital Markets companies, Guotai Haitong Securities Co ranks worse than 58.12% on this metric.

Note: Financial institutions were excluded from the sample in Beneish paper when calculating Beneish M-Score. Thus, the prediction might not fit banks and insurance companies.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -1.94 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Guotai Haitong Securities Co's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

FRA:153A' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.2   Med: -2.31   Max: -0.07
Current: -1.94

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Guotai Haitong Securities Co was -0.07. The lowest was -3.20. And the median was -2.31.

FRA:153A
62GF Score
Guotai Haitong Securities Co Ltd FRA:153A
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Guotai Haitong Securities Co Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Guotai Haitong Securities Co for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1+0.528 * 1+0.404 * 1.0043+0.892 * 1.8063+0.115 * 1
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.8799+4.679 * -0.070352-0.327 * 0.8959
=-2.03

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was €0 Mil.
Revenue was 2006.784 + 2070.158 + 2566.363 + 1618.357 = €8,262 Mil.
Gross Profit was 2006.784 + 2070.158 + 2566.363 + 1618.357 = €8,262 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €0 Mil.
Total Assets was €283,608 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €2,645 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €0 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €1,207 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €65,278 Mil.
Net Income was 801.791 + 695.375 + 757.934 + 422.024 = €2,677 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = €0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 6817.279 + 5901.328 + 2290.296 + 7620.552 = €22,629 Mil.
 Total Receivables was €0 Mil.
Revenue was 1289.904 + 1419.771 + 1177.8 + 686.21 = €4,574 Mil.
Gross Profit was 1289.904 + 1419.771 + 1177.8 + 686.21 = €4,574 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €0 Mil.
Total Assets was €216,019 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €2,932 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €0 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €759 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €55,501 Mil.

1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(0 / 8261.662) / (0 / 4573.685)
=0 / 0
=1

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(4573.685 / 4573.685) / (8261.662 / 8261.662)
=1 / 1
=1

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (0 + 2645.194) / 283607.98) / (1 - (0 + 2931.584) / 216019.395)
=0.990673 / 0.986429
=1.0043

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=8261.662 / 4573.685
=1.8063

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(0 / (0 + 2931.584)) / (0 / (0 + 2645.194))
=0 / 0
=1

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(1206.75 / 8261.662) / (759.237 / 4573.685)
=0.146066 / 0.166001
=0.8799

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((65278.166 + 0) / 283607.98) / ((55500.966 + 0) / 216019.395)
=0.23017 / 0.256926
=0.8959

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(2677.124 - 0 - 22629.455) / 283607.98
=-0.070352

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Guotai Haitong Securities Co has a M-score of -2.03 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -1.94 mean?
Guotai Haitong Securities Co (FRA:153A) has a Beneish M-Score of -1.94 as of Jun. 26, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Guotai Haitong Securities Co and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Guotai Haitong Securities Co ranks #408 out of 702 companies in the Capital Markets industry, placing it in the top 58.1%.
Is Guotai Haitong Securities Co's Beneish M-Score too high?
Guotai Haitong Securities Co's current Beneish M-Score is -1.94. Based on the distribution chart, Guotai Haitong Securities Co ranks #408 out of 702 companies in the Capital Markets industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Guotai Haitong Securities Co has a GF Score™ of 62/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Guotai Haitong Securities Co's Beneish M-Score compare to MS and GS?
According to the Capital Markets industry distribution chart, Guotai Haitong Securities Co ranks #408 out of 702 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places Guotai Haitong Securities Co in the lower half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Capital Markets company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Capital Markets industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Guotai Haitong Securities Co and its competitors. Guotai Haitong Securities Co's current Beneish M-Score is -1.94. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Guotai Haitong Securities Co stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Guotai Haitong Securities Co (FRA:153A) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is €1.68, compared to a current price of €1.62 — trading 3.6% below its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -1.94. Guotai Haitong Securities Co's overall GF Score™ is 62/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Guotai Haitong Securities Co (FRA:153A), the current Beneish M-Score is -1.94 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Guotai Haitong Securities Co (FRA:153A) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Guotai Haitong Securities Co stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of €1.62 is trading 3.6% below its estimated GF Value™ of €1.68. GuruFocus considers Guotai Haitong Securities Co to be Fairly Valued.

Key valuation signals for FRA:153A:

  • Beneish M-Score: -1.94
  • GF Value™: €1.68 vs. price of €1.62 (3.6% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 62/100 with 4 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the FRA:153A stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Guotai Haitong Securities Co Business Description

Other Exchanges 02611:Hong Kong601211:China
Address No. 768 Nanjing West Road, Jingan District, Shanghai, CHN, 200041
Guotai Haitong Securities Co Ltd provides financial services across wealth management, investment banking, institutional trading, investment management, and finance lease segments. Its wealth management business offers brokerage, advisory, margin financing, and securities lending services, while investment banking includes underwriting and M&A advisory. The institutional trading segment, the highest revenue contributor, covers institutional services, trading, and investment activities across multiple asset classes. The Group also provides asset and fund management and finance leasing solutions. It generates revenue mainly from fees, commissions, interest income, and investment gains. The company generates the majority of its revenue from Mainland China.
62GF Score

Get the complete analysis for FRA:153A

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

€1.62
Price
€1.68
GF Value