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Arco Vara AS (FRA:AV1) Beneish M-Score : 12.61 (As of Apr. 05, 2025)


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What is Arco Vara AS Beneish M-Score?

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Warning Sign:

Beneish M-Score 12.61 higher than -1.78, which implies that the company might have manipulated its financial results.

The historical rank and industry rank for Arco Vara AS's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

FRA:AV1' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.44   Med: -1.14   Max: 12.61
Current: 12.61

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Arco Vara AS was 12.61. The lowest was -3.44. And the median was -1.14.


Arco Vara AS Beneish M-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for Arco Vara AS's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Arco Vara AS Beneish M-Score Chart

Arco Vara AS Annual Data
Trend Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 1.48 0.44 -2.53 -1.22 12.61

Arco Vara AS Quarterly Data
Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -1.22 0.60 17.34 37.67 12.61

Competitive Comparison of Arco Vara AS's Beneish M-Score

For the Real Estate - Development subindustry, Arco Vara AS's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Arco Vara AS's Beneish M-Score Distribution in the Real Estate Industry

For the Real Estate industry and Real Estate sector, Arco Vara AS's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Arco Vara AS's Beneish M-Score falls into.


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Arco Vara AS Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Arco Vara AS for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 2.8708+0.528 * 1.2897+0.404 * 33.9364+0.892 * 0.4077+0.115 * 2.2947
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 2.9461+4.679 * 0.150753-0.327 * 1.2443
=12.61

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec24) TTM:Last Year (Dec23) TTM:
Total Receivables was €0.36 Mil.
Revenue was 3.39 + 2.154 + 0.943 + 0.99 = €7.48 Mil.
Gross Profit was 0.533 + 0.68 + 0.384 + 0.173 = €1.77 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €36.58 Mil.
Total Assets was €39.57 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €0.62 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €0.08 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €0.82 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €4.85 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €14.98 Mil.
Net Income was 0.22 + -0.156 + -0.339 + -0.349 = €-0.62 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = €0.00 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was -0.812 + 0.326 + -3.886 + -2.217 = €-6.59 Mil.
Total Receivables was €0.31 Mil.
Revenue was 17.687 + 0.145 + 0.254 + 0.253 = €18.34 Mil.
Gross Profit was 5.156 + 0.127 + 0.149 + 0.167 = €5.60 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €34.91 Mil.
Total Assets was €35.19 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €0.22 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €0.08 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €0.68 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €7.48 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €6.69 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(0.364 / 7.477) / (0.311 / 18.339)
=0.048683 / 0.016958
=2.8708

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(5.599 / 18.339) / (1.77 / 7.477)
=0.305306 / 0.236726
=1.2897

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (36.58 + 0.622) / 39.568) / (1 - (34.907 + 0.221) / 35.19)
=0.059796 / 0.001762
=33.9364

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=7.477 / 18.339
=0.4077

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(0.083 / (0.083 + 0.221)) / (0.084 / (0.084 + 0.622))
=0.273026 / 0.11898
=2.2947

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(0.818 / 7.477) / (0.681 / 18.339)
=0.109402 / 0.037134
=2.9461

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((14.981 + 4.848) / 39.568) / ((6.689 + 7.484) / 35.19)
=0.501137 / 0.402756
=1.2443

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(-0.624 - 0 - -6.589) / 39.568
=0.150753

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Arco Vara AS has a M-score of 12.61 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.


Arco Vara AS Beneish M-Score Related Terms

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Arco Vara AS Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
Rotermanni street 10, Tallinn, EST, 10111
Arco Vara AS is a real estate group in the Baltic States. The group is engaged in real estate development and services related to real estate. The main activity of the group is the development of complete living environments and related commercial real estate. In the development of the living environment, the completed homes are sold to the final consumer. The focus of the group is on the development of the residential real estate. The company operates in a single segment which is the construction and development segment. Its primary geographic markets are Estonia and Bulgaria.

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