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China BlueChemical (HKSE:03983) Beneish M-Score : -1.92 (As of May. 16, 2024)


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What is China BlueChemical Beneish M-Score?

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -1.92 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for China BlueChemical's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

HKSE:03983' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.62   Med: -1.91   Max: 0.2
Current: -1.92

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of China BlueChemical was 0.20. The lowest was -3.62. And the median was -1.91.


China BlueChemical Beneish M-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for China BlueChemical's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

China BlueChemical Beneish M-Score Chart

China BlueChemical Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -0.76 -1.89 -3.26 -1.76 -1.92

China BlueChemical Semi-Annual Data
Jun14 Dec14 Jun15 Dec15 Jun16 Dec16 Jun17 Dec17 Jun18 Dec18 Jun19 Dec19 Jun20 Dec20 Jun21 Dec21 Jun22 Dec22 Jun23 Dec23
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -3.26 - -1.76 - -1.92

Competitive Comparison of China BlueChemical's Beneish M-Score

For the Agricultural Inputs subindustry, China BlueChemical's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


China BlueChemical's Beneish M-Score Distribution in the Agriculture Industry

For the Agriculture industry and Basic Materials sector, China BlueChemical's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where China BlueChemical's Beneish M-Score falls into.



China BlueChemical Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of China BlueChemical for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0008+0.528 * 1.1196+0.404 * 2.0176+0.892 * 0.891+0.115 * 0.9328
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.1856+4.679 * 0.034463-0.327 * 0.822
=-1.92

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec23) TTM:Last Year (Dec22) TTM:
Total Receivables was HK$909 Mil.
Revenue was HK$14,208 Mil.
Gross Profit was HK$2,254 Mil.
Total Current Assets was HK$17,037 Mil.
Total Assets was HK$26,598 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was HK$8,460 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was HK$686 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was HK$785 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was HK$3,439 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was HK$1,487 Mil.
Net Income was HK$2,605 Mil.
Gross Profit was HK$0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was HK$1,688 Mil.
Total Receivables was HK$1,019 Mil.
Revenue was HK$15,946 Mil.
Gross Profit was HK$2,833 Mil.
Total Current Assets was HK$17,292 Mil.
Total Assets was HK$26,240 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was HK$8,410 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was HK$633 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was HK$743 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was HK$4,581 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was HK$1,331 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(908.718 / 14208.004) / (1019.078 / 15945.63)
=0.063958 / 0.06391
=1.0008

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(2832.711 / 15945.63) / (2254.355 / 14208.004)
=0.177648 / 0.158668
=1.1196

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (17037.397 + 8460.345) / 26597.8) / (1 - (17292.055 + 8410.235) / 26240.182)
=0.041359 / 0.020499
=2.0176

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=14208.004 / 15945.63
=0.891

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(632.984 / (632.984 + 8410.235)) / (686.362 / (686.362 + 8460.345))
=0.069995 / 0.075039
=0.9328

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(784.874 / 14208.004) / (742.991 / 15945.63)
=0.055242 / 0.046595
=1.1856

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((1487.283 + 3438.922) / 26597.8) / ((1331.37 + 4581.343) / 26240.182)
=0.185211 / 0.22533
=0.822

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(2605.032 - 0 - 1688.384) / 26597.8
=0.034463

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

China BlueChemical has a M-score of -1.92 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.


China BlueChemical Beneish M-Score Related Terms

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China BlueChemical (HKSE:03983) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
No. 15, Sanqu, Anzhen Xili, Unit 1707, Kaikang CNOOC Mansion, District 3, Chaoyang District, Beijing, CHN, 100029
China BlueChemical Ltd is engaged in the development, production, and sales of mineral fertilizers and chemical products. The firm's segments are urea, methanol, phosphorus and compound fertilizer, and others. The urea segment is engaged in the manufacture and sale of urea. It generates maximum revenue from the Urea segment. Geographically, it derives the majority of its revenue from PRC.

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