FirstGroup (LSE:FGP) Beneish M-Score: -3.59 (As of Jun. 24, 2026)


LSE:FGP FirstGroup PLC LSE:FGP
71 GF Score
Price £1.84
GF Value £2.00
Valuation Fairly Valued
! 3 Warning Signs
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What is FirstGroup Beneish M-Score?

FirstGroup LSE:FGP -1.29% 71 Beneish M-Score is -3.59 as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus rates LSE:FGP with a GF Score™ of 71/100 and a GF Value™ of £2.00 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review. Among 966 Transportation companies, FirstGroup ranks better than 95.24% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -3.59 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for FirstGroup's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

LSE:FGP' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -4.62   Med: -3.29   Max: -2.65
Current: -3.59

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of FirstGroup was -2.65. The lowest was -4.62. And the median was -3.29.


FirstGroup Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for FirstGroup's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

FirstGroup Beneish M-Score Chart

FirstGroup Annual Data
Trend Mar17 Mar18 Mar19 Mar20 Mar21 Mar22 Mar23 Mar24 Mar25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 0.00 -3.34 -3.29 -3.25 -3.59

FirstGroup Semi-Annual Data
Sep16 Mar17 Sep17 Mar18 Sep18 Mar19 Sep19 Mar20 Sep20 Mar21 Sep21 Mar22 Sep22 Mar23 Sep23 Mar24 Sep24 Mar25 Sep25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -3.29 0.00 -3.25 0.00 -3.59

LSE:FGP vs UNP, CSX, NSC: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Railroads subindustry, FirstGroup's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


FirstGroup Beneish M-Score vs Transportation Industry

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, FirstGroup's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where FirstGroup's Beneish M-Score falls into.


LSE:FGP
71GF Score
FirstGroup PLC LSE:FGP
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

FirstGroup Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of FirstGroup for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.7882+0.528 * 0.3896+0.404 * 1.0252+0.892 * 0.9311+0.115 * 0.9531
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0+4.679 * -0.160347-0.327 * 0.8827
=-3.59

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was £532 Mil.
Revenue was £4,333 Mil.
Gross Profit was £4,333 Mil.
Total Current Assets was £1,074 Mil.
Total Assets was £3,101 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was £1,727 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was £565 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was £0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was £1,462 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was £579 Mil.
Net Income was £118 Mil.
Gross Profit was £0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was £616 Mil.
Total Receivables was £724 Mil.
Revenue was £4,654 Mil.
Gross Profit was £1,813 Mil.
Total Current Assets was £1,287 Mil.
Total Assets was £3,661 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was £2,028 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was £623 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was £4 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was £1,850 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was £880 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(531.6 / 4332.7) / (724.4 / 4653.5)
=0.122695 / 0.155668
=0.7882

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(1812.9 / 4653.5) / (4332.7 / 4332.7)
=0.389578 / 1
=0.3896

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (1073.9 + 1727.1) / 3101.4) / (1 - (1287.1 + 2028) / 3661)
=0.096859 / 0.094482
=1.0252

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=4332.7 / 4653.5
=0.9311

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(622.9 / (622.9 + 2028)) / (565.1 / (565.1 + 1727.1))
=0.234977 / 0.246532
=0.9531

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(0 / 4332.7) / (3.6 / 4653.5)
=0 / 0.000774
=0

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((579.3 + 1461.9) / 3101.4) / ((879.9 + 1849.9) / 3661)
=0.658154 / 0.745643
=0.8827

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(118.3 - 0 - 615.6) / 3101.4
=-0.160347

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

FirstGroup has a M-score of -3.59 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -3.59 mean?
FirstGroup (LSE:FGP) has a Beneish M-Score of -3.59 as of Jun. 24, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on FirstGroup and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, FirstGroup ranks #46 out of 966 companies in the Transportation industry, placing it in the top 4.8%.
Is FirstGroup's Beneish M-Score too high?
FirstGroup's current Beneish M-Score is -3.59. Based on the distribution chart, FirstGroup ranks #46 out of 966 companies in the Transportation industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, FirstGroup has a GF Score™ of 71/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does FirstGroup's Beneish M-Score compare to UNP and CSX?
According to the Transportation industry distribution chart, FirstGroup ranks #46 out of 966 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places FirstGroup in the top 5% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Transportation company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Transportation industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on FirstGroup and its competitors. FirstGroup's current Beneish M-Score is -3.59. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is FirstGroup stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, FirstGroup (LSE:FGP) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is £2.00, compared to a current price of £1.84 — trading 8.1% below its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -3.59. FirstGroup's overall GF Score™ is 71/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For FirstGroup (LSE:FGP), the current Beneish M-Score is -3.59 as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is FirstGroup (LSE:FGP) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, FirstGroup stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of £1.84 is trading 8.1% below its estimated GF Value™ of £2.00. GuruFocus considers FirstGroup to be Fairly Valued.

Key valuation signals for LSE:FGP:

  • Beneish M-Score: -3.59
  • GF Value™: £2.00 vs. price of £1.84 (8.1% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 71/100 with 3 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the LSE:FGP stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


FirstGroup Business Description

Other Exchanges FGROY:USAFGPl:UKFGR:Germany
Address 37 North Wharf Road, 8th Floor, The Point, Paddington, London, GBR, W2 1AF
FirstGroup PLC is a passenger transportation company domiciled in the United Kingdom. The company organizes itself into segments: Greyhound, First Bus, and First Rail. The Greyhound segment operates intercity coaches in the United States and Canada. First Bus operates buses in the United Kingdom. First Rail operates passenger trains in the United Kingdom. The company derives the majority of its revenue from the United Kingdom.
71GF Score

Get the complete analysis for LSE:FGP

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

£1.84
Price
£2.00
GF Value