Orlen (LTS:0FMN) Beneish M-Score: -3.24 (As of Jun. 27, 2026)


LTS:0FMN Orlen SA LTS:0FMN
63 GF Score
Price zł109.40
GF Value zł45.63
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 3 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Orlen Beneish M-Score?

Orlen LTS:0FMN 63 Beneish M-Score is -3.24 as of Jun. 27, 2026. GuruFocus rates LTS:0FMN with a GF Score™ of 63/100 and a GF Value™ of zł45.63 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review. Among 822 Oil & Gas companies, Orlen ranks better than 80.54% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -3.24 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Orlen's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

LTS:0FMN' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -37.06   Med: -2.96   Max: -1.12
Current: -3.24

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Orlen was -1.12. The lowest was -37.06. And the median was -2.96.


Orlen Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Orlen's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Orlen Beneish M-Score Chart

Orlen Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -30.67 -1.12 -2.72 -3.10 -3.41

Orlen Quarterly Data
Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -3.08 -3.25 -3.23 -3.41 -3.24

LTS:0FMN vs XOM, CVX: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Oil & Gas Integrated subindustry, Orlen's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Orlen Beneish M-Score vs Oil & Gas Industry

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Orlen's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Orlen's Beneish M-Score falls into.


LTS:0FMN
63GF Score
Orlen SA LTS:0FMN
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Orlen Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Orlen for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.9385+0.528 * 0.7921+0.404 * 0.855+0.892 * 0.9416+0.115 * 0.9994
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.1455+4.679 * -0.090068-0.327 * 1.1031
=-3.24

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was zł29,873 Mil.
Revenue was 75769 + 72128 + 61007 + 60659 = zł269,563 Mil.
Gross Profit was 18308 + 13618 + 10676 + 9499 = zł52,101 Mil.
Total Current Assets was zł93,040 Mil.
Total Assets was zł279,567 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was zł158,577 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was zł14,201 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was zł21,587 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was zł68,075 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was zł34,383 Mil.
Net Income was 8079 + 3129 + 2135 + 1567 = zł14,910 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = zł0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 8468 + 12915 + 8218 + 10489 = zł40,090 Mil.
Total Receivables was zł33,808 Mil.
Revenue was 73650 + 75198 + 67936 + 69510 = zł286,294 Mil.
Gross Profit was 12965 + 14246 + 10594 + 6025 = zł43,830 Mil.
Total Current Assets was zł73,777 Mil.
Total Assets was zł260,752 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was zł156,484 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was zł14,005 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was zł20,015 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was zł59,545 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was zł27,083 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(29873 / 269563) / (33808 / 286294)
=0.11082 / 0.118088
=0.9385

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(43830 / 286294) / (52101 / 269563)
=0.153094 / 0.193279
=0.7921

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (93040 + 158577) / 279567) / (1 - (73777 + 156484) / 260752)
=0.099976 / 0.116935
=0.855

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=269563 / 286294
=0.9416

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(14005 / (14005 + 156484)) / (14201 / (14201 + 158577))
=0.082146 / 0.082192
=0.9994

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(21587 / 269563) / (20015 / 286294)
=0.080081 / 0.069911
=1.1455

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((34383 + 68075) / 279567) / ((27083 + 59545) / 260752)
=0.366488 / 0.332224
=1.1031

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(14910 - 0 - 40090) / 279567
=-0.090068

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Orlen has a M-score of -3.24 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -3.24 mean?
Orlen (LTS:0FMN) has a Beneish M-Score of -3.24 as of Jun. 27, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Orlen and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Orlen ranks #160 out of 822 companies in the Oil & Gas industry, placing it in the top 19.5%.
Is Orlen's Beneish M-Score too high?
Orlen's current Beneish M-Score is -3.24. Based on the distribution chart, Orlen ranks #160 out of 822 companies in the Oil & Gas industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, Orlen has a GF Score™ of 63/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Orlen's Beneish M-Score compare to XOM and CVX?
According to the Oil & Gas industry distribution chart, Orlen ranks #160 out of 822 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places Orlen in the top 20% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for an Oil & Gas company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Oil & Gas industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Orlen and its competitors. Orlen's current Beneish M-Score is -3.24. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Orlen stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Orlen (LTS:0FMN) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is zł45.63, compared to a current price of zł109.40 — trading 139.8% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -3.24. Orlen's overall GF Score™ is 63/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Orlen (LTS:0FMN), the current Beneish M-Score is -3.24 as of Jun. 27, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Orlen (LTS:0FMN) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Orlen stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of zł109.40 is trading 139.8% above its estimated GF Value™ of zł45.63. GuruFocus considers Orlen to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for LTS:0FMN:

  • Beneish M-Score: -3.24
  • GF Value™: zł45.63 vs. price of zł109.40 (139.8% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 63/100 with 3 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the LTS:0FMN stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Orlen Business Description

Industry EnergyOil & Gas
Address Chemikow 7 Street, Plock, POL, 09-411
Orlen SA is an energy conglomerate that refines and distributes oil in Poland, the Czech Republic, Germany, and Lithuania. Through a group of refineries, it processes crude oil into gasoline, diesel oil, fuel oil, and aviation fuel. The company also produces petrochemicals and products used by chemical companies as feedstock. Additional operations include exploration and production activities in Poland, where it is domiciled, and Canada. Oil products are offered through thousands of service stations, which is supported by logistics infrastructure. This infrastructure includes surface and underground storage depots and a long-distance pipeline network.
63GF Score

Get the complete analysis for LTS:0FMN

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

zł109.40
Price
zł45.63
GF Value