Arch Capital Group (MEX:ACGLN) Beneish M-Score: -2.48 (As of Aug. 09, 2026)

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Reviewed by: Charlie Tian Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Founder & CEO of GuruFocus
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

MEX:ACGLN Arch Capital Group Ltd MEX:ACGLN
66 GF Score
Price MXN1,839.31
GF Value MXN2,032.80
Valuation Fairly Valued
! 3 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Arch Capital Group Beneish M-Score?

Arch Capital Group MEX:ACGLN 66 Beneish M-Score is -2.48 as of Aug. 09, 2026. GuruFocus rates MEX:ACGLN with a GF Score™ of 66/100 and a GF Value™ of MXN2,032.80 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review. Among 399 Insurance companies, Arch Capital Group ranks better than 50.13% on this metric.

Note: Financial institutions were excluded from the sample in Beneish paper when calculating Beneish M-Score. Thus, the prediction might not fit banks and insurance companies.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.48 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Arch Capital Group's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

MEX:ACGLN' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.89   Med: -2.42   Max: -2.14
Current: -2.48

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Arch Capital Group was -2.14. The lowest was -2.89. And the median was -2.42.

MEX:ACGLN
66GF Score
Arch Capital Group Ltd MEX:ACGLN
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Arch Capital Group Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Arch Capital Group for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.9572+0.528 * 1+0.404 * 1+0.892 * 0.9842+0.115 * 1
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1+4.679 * -0.025795-0.327 * 0.8951
=-2.62

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec25) TTM:Last Year (Dec24) TTM:
Total Receivables was MXN315,442 Mil.
Revenue was MXN347,510 Mil.
Gross Profit was MXN347,510 Mil.
Total Current Assets was MXN0 Mil.
Total Assets was MXN1,426,790 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was MXN0 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was MXN3,475 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was MXN0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was MXN0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was MXN49,138 Mil.
Net Income was MXN79,207 Mil.
Gross Profit was MXN4,880 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was MXN111,131 Mil.
 Total Receivables was MXN334,838 Mil.
Revenue was MXN353,087 Mil.
Gross Profit was MXN353,087 Mil.
Total Current Assets was MXN0 Mil.
Total Assets was MXN1,478,794 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was MXN0 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was MXN4,901 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was MXN0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was MXN0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was MXN56,894 Mil.

1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(315441.858 / 347510.01) / (334838.263 / 353087.001)
=0.90772 / 0.948317
=0.9572

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(353087.001 / 353087.001) / (347510.01 / 347510.01)
=1 / 1
=1

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (0 + 0) / 1426789.675) / (1 - (0 + 0) / 1478794.263)
=1 / 1
=1

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=347510.01 / 353087.001
=0.9842

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(4901.089 / (4901.089 + 0)) / (3475.1 / (3475.1 + 0))
=1 / 1
=1

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(0 / 347510.01) / (0 / 353087.001)
=0 / 0
=1

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((49137.555 + 0) / 1426789.675) / ((56894.35 + 0) / 1478794.263)
=0.034439 / 0.038473
=0.8951

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(79207.074 - 4879.545 - 111131.18) / 1426789.675
=-0.025795

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Arch Capital Group has a M-score of -2.62 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.48 mean?
Arch Capital Group (MEX:ACGLN) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.48 as of Aug. 09, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Arch Capital Group and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Arch Capital Group ranks #199 out of 399 companies in the Insurance industry, placing it in the top 49.9%.
Is Arch Capital Group's Beneish M-Score too high?
Arch Capital Group's current Beneish M-Score is -2.48. Based on the distribution chart, Arch Capital Group ranks #199 out of 399 companies in the Insurance industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Arch Capital Group has a GF Score™ of 66/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Arch Capital Group's Beneish M-Score compare to HIG and AIG?
According to the Insurance industry distribution chart, Arch Capital Group ranks #199 out of 399 companies for Beneish M-Score. This puts Arch Capital Group in the upper half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for an Insurance company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Insurance industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Arch Capital Group and its competitors. Arch Capital Group's current Beneish M-Score is -2.48. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Arch Capital Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Arch Capital Group (MEX:ACGLN) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is MXN2,032.80, compared to a current price of MXN1,839.31 — trading 9.5% below its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.48. Arch Capital Group's overall GF Score™ is 66/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Arch Capital Group (MEX:ACGLN), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.48 as of Aug. 09, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Arch Capital Group (MEX:ACGLN) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Arch Capital Group stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of MXN1,839.31 is trading 9.5% below its estimated GF Value™ of MXN2,032.80. GuruFocus considers Arch Capital Group to be Fairly Valued.

Key valuation signals for MEX:ACGLN:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.48
  • GF Value™: MXN2,032.80 vs. price of MXN1,839.31 (9.5% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 66/100 with 3 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the MEX:ACGLN stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Arch Capital Group Business Description

Address 100 Pitts Bay Road, Waterloo House, Ground Floor, Pembroke, BMU, HM 08
Arch Capital Group Ltd is a Bermuda company that writes insurance and reinsurance with operations in the United States, Canada, Europe, Australia, and the United Kingdom. The business operates through three underwriting segments: insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage. The insurance segment provides specialty risk solutions to clients across various industries. The reinsurance segment provides reinsurance services which cover property catastrophe, property, liability, marine, aviation and space, trade credit and surety, agriculture, accident, life and health, and political risk. The mortgage business provides risk management and risk financing products to the mortgage insurance sectors through platforms in the U.S., Europe and Bermuda.
66GF Score

Get the complete analysis for MEX:ACGLN

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

MXN1,839.31
Price
MXN2,032.80
GF Value