Novavax (MEX:NVAX) Beneish M-Score: -2.49 (As of Jun. 28, 2026)


MEX:NVAX Novavax Inc MEX:NVAX
42 GF Score
Price MXN156.00
GF Value MXN68.69
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 7 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Novavax Beneish M-Score?

Novavax MEX:NVAX +6.85% 42 Beneish M-Score is -2.49 as of Jun. 28, 2026. GuruFocus rates MEX:NVAX with a GF Score™ of 42/100 and a GF Value™ of MXN68.69 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review. Among 829 Biotechnology companies, Novavax ranks better than 55.13% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.49 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Novavax's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

MEX:NVAX' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -17.26   Med: -2.28   Max: 23.24
Current: -2.49

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Novavax was 23.24. The lowest was -17.26. And the median was -2.28.


Novavax Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Novavax's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Novavax Beneish M-Score Chart

Novavax Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -0.30 3.62 4.47 -3.79 0.96

Novavax Quarterly Data
Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 0.32 5.05 0.11 0.96 -2.49

MEX:NVAX vs QURE, HRMY, IOVA: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Biotechnology subindustry, Novavax's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Novavax Beneish M-Score vs Biotechnology Industry

For the Biotechnology industry and Healthcare sector, Novavax's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Novavax's Beneish M-Score falls into.


MEX:NVAX
42GF Score
Novavax Inc MEX:NVAX
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Novavax Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Novavax for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0425+0.528 * 1.0283+0.404 * 1.1924+0.892 * 0.4428+0.115 * 0.4906
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9759+4.679 * 0.090369-0.327 * 1.2204
=-2.55

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was MXN420 Mil.
Revenue was 2515.814 + 2649.341 + 1292.257 + 4504.698 = MXN10,962 Mil.
Gross Profit was 1962.3 + 2251.343 + 897.93 + 4216.14 = MXN9,328 Mil.
Total Current Assets was MXN15,343 Mil.
Total Assets was MXN18,811 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was MXN1,145 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was MXN411 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was MXN2,535 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was MXN6,175 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was MXN5,283 Mil.
Net Income was -171.148 + 315.586 + -3712.481 + 2005.46 = MXN-1,563 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 213.237 + 156.47 + -2138.457 + 224.105 = MXN-1,545 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was -584.674 + -710.775 + 1977.578 + -2400.007 = MXN-1,718 Mil.
Total Receivables was MXN911 Mil.
Revenue was 13638.561 + 1841.788 + 1664.067 + 7611.71 = MXN24,756 Mil.
Gross Profit was 13349.794 + 1077.03 + 470.46 + 6764.551 = MXN21,662 Mil.
Total Current Assets was MXN17,758 Mil.
Total Assets was MXN26,452 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was MXN5,954 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was MXN886 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was MXN5,867 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was MXN8,637 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was MXN4,566 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(420.378 / 10962.11) / (910.594 / 24756.126)
=0.038348 / 0.036783
=1.0425

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(21661.835 / 24756.126) / (9327.713 / 10962.11)
=0.875009 / 0.850905
=1.0283

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (15342.51 + 1145.203) / 18811.027) / (1 - (17758.29 + 5954.011) / 26452.289)
=0.123508 / 0.103582
=1.1924

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=10962.11 / 24756.126
=0.4428

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(885.678 / (885.678 + 5954.011)) / (410.697 / (410.697 + 1145.203))
=0.129491 / 0.263961
=0.4906

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(2535.182 / 10962.11) / (5866.532 / 24756.126)
=0.231268 / 0.236973
=0.9759

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((5282.607 + 6175.496) / 18811.027) / ((4565.882 + 8636.838) / 26452.289)
=0.609116 / 0.499114
=1.2204

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(-1562.583 - -1544.645 - -1717.878) / 18811.027
=0.090369

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Novavax has a M-score of -2.55 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.49 mean?
Novavax (MEX:NVAX) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.49 as of Jun. 28, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Novavax and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Novavax ranks #372 out of 829 companies in the Biotechnology industry, placing it in the top 44.9%.
Is Novavax's Beneish M-Score too high?
Novavax's current Beneish M-Score is -2.49. Based on the distribution chart, Novavax ranks #372 out of 829 companies in the Biotechnology industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Novavax has a GF Score™ of 42/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Novavax's Beneish M-Score compare to QURE and HRMY?
According to the Biotechnology industry distribution chart, Novavax ranks #372 out of 829 companies for Beneish M-Score. This puts Novavax in the upper half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Biotechnology company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Biotechnology industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Novavax and its competitors. Novavax's current Beneish M-Score is -2.49. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Novavax stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Novavax (MEX:NVAX) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is MXN68.69, compared to a current price of MXN156.00 — trading 127.1% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.49. Novavax's overall GF Score™ is 42/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Novavax (MEX:NVAX), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.49 as of Jun. 28, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Novavax (MEX:NVAX) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Novavax stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of MXN156.00 is trading 127.1% above its estimated GF Value™ of MXN68.69. GuruFocus considers Novavax to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for MEX:NVAX:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.49
  • GF Value™: MXN68.69 vs. price of MXN156.00 (127.1% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 42/100 with 7 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the MEX:NVAX stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Novavax Business Description

Address 21 Firstfield Road, Gaithersburg, MD, USA, 20878
Novavax Inc is a biotechnology company that develops vaccines. The company works in the clinical stage of development with a focus on delivering novel products that prevent a broad range of diseases. It works together with its wholly owned Swedish subsidiary to produce vaccine candidates to respond to both known and emerging disease threats. The company believes its vaccine technology has the potential to be applied broadly to a wide variety of human infectious diseases. The company manages its business as one operating segment, an in-house early-stage R&D business to build a pipeline of high-value assets using its technology along with seeking to enter into partnerships to drive value creation for its assets.
42GF Score

Get the complete analysis for MEX:NVAX

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

MXN156.00
Price
MXN68.69
GF Value