Packaging of America (MEX:PKG) Beneish M-Score: -2.50 (As of Jun. 26, 2026)


MEX:PKG Packaging Corp of America MEX:PKG
88 GF Score
Price MXN4,059.68
GF Value MXN3,726.44
! 6 Warning Signs
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What is Packaging of America Beneish M-Score?

Packaging of America MEX:PKG 88 Beneish M-Score is -2.50 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus rates MEX:PKG with a GF Score™ of 88/100 and a GF Value™ of MXN3,726.44. The stock has 6 warning signs investors should review. Among 373 Packaging & Containers companies, Packaging of America ranks worse than 55.5% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.5 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Packaging of America's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

MEX:PKG' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.91   Med: -2.61   Max: -2.35
Current: -2.5

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Packaging of America was -2.35. The lowest was -2.91. And the median was -2.61.


Packaging of America Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Packaging of America's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Packaging of America Beneish M-Score Chart

Packaging of America Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.41 -2.75 -2.76 -2.51 -2.55

Packaging of America Quarterly Data
Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.55 -2.61 -2.46 -2.55 -2.50

MEX:PKG vs AMCR, IP, SW: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Packaging & Containers subindustry, Packaging of America's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Packaging of America Beneish M-Score vs Packaging & Containers Industry

For the Packaging & Containers industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Packaging of America's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Packaging of America's Beneish M-Score falls into.


MEX:PKG
88GF Score
Packaging Corp of America MEX:PKG
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Packaging of America Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Packaging of America for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0289+0.528 * 1.066+0.404 * 1.3951+0.892 * 0.9943+0.115 * 0.8659
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9768+4.679 * -0.060976-0.327 * 1.1897
=-2.62

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was MXN24,364 Mil.
Revenue was 42697.827 + 42558.273 + 42437.472 + 40883.842 = MXN168,577 Mil.
Gross Profit was 8167.01 + 8057.551 + 9250.98 + 9094.504 = MXN34,570 Mil.
Total Current Assets was MXN58,743 Mil.
Total Assets was MXN194,355 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was MXN96,892 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was MXN13,498 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was MXN11,943 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was MXN19,131 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was MXN76,864 Mil.
Net Income was 3081.788 + 1832.98 + 4162.299 + 4547.252 = MXN13,624 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -364.261 + -2049.049 + -467.777 + 73.434 = MXN-2,808 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 5938.168 + 8041.346 + 8662.131 + 5641.228 = MXN28,283 Mil.
Total Receivables was MXN23,815 Mil.
Revenue was 43801.006 + 44758.418 + 42972.111 + 38019.71 = MXN169,551 Mil.
Gross Profit was 9302.344 + 9795.922 + 9947.54 + 8018.709 = MXN37,065 Mil.
Total Current Assets was MXN67,563 Mil.
Total Assets was MXN183,506 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was MXN89,738 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was MXN10,627 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was MXN12,296 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was MXN20,616 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was MXN55,569 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(24363.981 / 168577.414) / (23815.391 / 169551.245)
=0.144527 / 0.140461
=1.0289

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(37064.515 / 169551.245) / (34570.045 / 168577.414)
=0.218604 / 0.205069
=1.066

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (58743.324 + 96891.5) / 194354.637) / (1 - (67563.206 + 89737.849) / 183505.962)
=0.199222 / 0.142801
=1.3951

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=168577.414 / 169551.245
=0.9943

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(10626.643 / (10626.643 + 89737.849)) / (13497.738 / (13497.738 + 96891.5))
=0.105881 / 0.122274
=0.8659

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(11942.781 / 168577.414) / (12296.425 / 169551.245)
=0.070844 / 0.072523
=0.9768

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((76864.384 + 19130.891) / 194354.637) / ((55568.563 + 20615.728) / 183505.962)
=0.493918 / 0.41516
=1.1897

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(13624.319 - -2807.653 - 28282.873) / 194354.637
=-0.060976

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Packaging of America has a M-score of -2.62 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.50 mean?
Packaging of America (MEX:PKG) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.50 as of Jun. 26, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Packaging of America and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Packaging of America ranks #207 out of 373 companies in the Packaging & Containers industry, placing it in the top 55.5%.
Is Packaging of America's Beneish M-Score too high?
Packaging of America's current Beneish M-Score is -2.50. Based on the distribution chart, Packaging of America ranks #207 out of 373 companies in the Packaging & Containers industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Packaging of America has a GF Score™ of 88/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Packaging of America's Beneish M-Score compare to AMCR and IP?
According to the Packaging & Containers industry distribution chart, Packaging of America ranks #207 out of 373 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places Packaging of America in the lower half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Packaging & Containers company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Packaging & Containers industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Packaging of America and its competitors. Packaging of America's current Beneish M-Score is -2.50. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Packaging of America stock overvalued right now?
Packaging of America (MEX:PKG) has a current Beneish M-Score of -2.50. The stock's GF Value™ is MXN3,726.44, compared to a current price of MXN4,059.68 — trading 8.9% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.50. Packaging of America's overall GF Score™ is 88/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Packaging of America (MEX:PKG), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.50 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Packaging of America (MEX:PKG) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Packaging of America stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of MXN4,059.68 is trading 8.9% above its estimated GF Value™ of MXN3,726.44.

Key valuation signals for MEX:PKG:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.50
  • GF Value™: MXN3,726.44 vs. price of MXN4,059.68 (8.9% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 88/100 with 6 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the MEX:PKG stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Packaging of America Business Description

Address 1 North Field Court, Lake Forest, IL, USA, 60045
Packaging Corp. of America is the third-largest containerboard and corrugated packaging manufacturer in the United States. It produces over 5 million tons of containerboard annually. The company's share of the domestic containerboard market is roughly 10%. PCA differentiates itself from larger competitors by focusing on smaller customers and operating with a high degree of flexibility.
88GF Score

Get the complete analysis for MEX:PKG

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

MXN4,059.68
Price
MXN3,726.44
GF Value