MTR (MTCPY) Beneish M-Score: -2.57 (As of Jun. 25, 2026)

What is MTR Beneish M-Score?

MTR MTCPY 80 Beneish M-Score is -2.57 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus rates MTCPY with a GF Score™ of 80/100 and a GF Value™ of $10.75. The stock has 4 warning signs investors should review. Among 966 Transportation companies, MTR ranks worse than 51.66% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.57 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for MTR's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

MTCPY' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.98 Med: -2.5 Max: 1.42
Current: -2.57

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of MTR was 1.42. The lowest was -2.98. And the median was -2.50.

MTR Beneish M-Score Related Terms

MTR Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for MTR's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

MTR Beneish M-Score Chart

MTR Annual Data

Trend

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Dec23

Dec24

Dec25

Beneish M-Score

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-2.74

-2.46

-2.83

-2.53

-2.57

MTR Semi-Annual Data
	Jun16	Dec16	Jun17	Dec17	Jun18	Dec18	Jun19	Dec19	Jun20	Dec20	Jun21	Dec21	Jun22	Dec22	Jun23	Dec23	Jun24	Dec24	Jun25	Dec25
Beneish M-Score	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															-2.83	0.00	-2.53	0.00	-2.57

MTCPY vs UNP, CSX, NSC: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Railroads subindustry, MTR's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

MTR Beneish M-Score vs Transportation Industry

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, MTR's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where MTR's Beneish M-Score falls into.

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MTR Corp Ltd MTCPY

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.

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MTR Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of MTR for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

-4.84

0.92 * DSRI

0.528 * GMI

0.404 * AQI

0.892 * SGI

0.115 * DEPI

-4.84

0.92 * 0.9325

0.528 * 0.9718

0.404 * 0.9587

0.892 * 0.9234

0.115 * 1

0.172 * SGAI

4.679 * TATA

0.327 * LVGI

0.172 * 0.9945

4.679 * 0.00862

0.327 * 0.9231

-2.58

This Year (Dec25) TTM:

Last Year (Dec24) TTM:

Total Receivables was $2,434 Mil.
Revenue was $7,128 Mil.
Gross Profit was $1,676 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $8,876 Mil.
Total Assets was $51,272 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $22,079 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $0 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $123 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $8,037 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $11,411 Mil.
Net Income was $1,968 Mil.
Gross Profit was $0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was $1,526 Mil.

Total Receivables was $2,827 Mil.
Revenue was $7,720 Mil.
Gross Profit was $1,764 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $7,038 Mil.
Total Assets was $47,276 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $20,699 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $0 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $134 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $9,560 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $9,867 Mil.

1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI	=	(Receivables_t / Revenue_t)	/	(Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
	=	(2434.326 / 7128.444)	/	(2827.334 / 7720.045)
	=	0.341495	/	0.366233
	=	0.9325

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI	=	GrossMargin_t-1	/	GrossMargin_t
	=	(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)	/	(GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
	=	(1763.964 / 7720.045)	/	(1676.049 / 7128.444)
	=	0.228491	/	0.235121
	=	0.9718

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI	=	(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t)	/	(1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
	=	(1 - (8876.465 + 22079.349) / 51272.106)	/	(1 - (7037.718 + 20698.536) / 47276.481)
	=	0.396245	/	0.413318
	=	0.9587

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI	=	Sales_t	/	Sales_t-1
	=	Revenue_t	/	Revenue_t-1
	=	7128.444	/	7720.045
	=	0.9234

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI	=	(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1))	/	(Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
	=	(0 / (0 + 20698.536))	/	(0 / (0 + 22079.349))
	=	0	/	0
	=	1

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI	=	(SGA_t / Sales_t)	/	(SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
	=	(122.738 / 7128.444)	/	(133.661 / 7720.045)
	=	0.017218	/	0.017314
	=	0.9945

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI	=	((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t)	/	((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
	=	((11411.294 + 8036.706) / 51272.106)	/	((9867.497 + 9559.524) / 47276.481)
	=	0.37931	/	0.410924
	=	0.9231

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA	=	(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t	-	CashFlowsfromOperations_t)	/	TotalAssets_t
	=	(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t	-	CashFlowsfromOperations_t)	/	TotalAssets_t
	=	(1968.05 - 0	-	1526.064)	/	51272.106
	=	0.00862

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

MTR has a M-score of -2.58 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →

What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.57 mean?

MTR (MTCPY) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.57 as of Jun. 25, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on MTR and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, MTR ranks #499 out of 966 companies in the Transportation industry, placing it in the top 51.7%.

Is MTR's Beneish M-Score too high?

MTR's current Beneish M-Score is -2.57. Based on the distribution chart, MTR ranks #499 out of 966 companies in the Transportation industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, MTR has a GF Score™ of 80/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.

How does MTR's Beneish M-Score compare to UNP and CSX?

According to the Transportation industry distribution chart, MTR ranks #499 out of 966 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places MTR in the lower half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.

What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Transportation company?

A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Transportation industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.

What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?

A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on MTR and its competitors. MTR's current Beneish M-Score is -2.57. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.

Is MTR stock overvalued right now?

MTR (MTCPY) has a current Beneish M-Score of -2.57. The stock's GF Value™ is $10.75, compared to a current price of $12.88 — trading 19.8% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.57. MTR's overall GF Score™ is 80/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.

How is Beneish M-Score calculated?

Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For MTR (MTCPY), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.57 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is MTR (MTCPY) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, MTR stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of $12.88 is trading 19.8% above its estimated GF Value™ of $10.75.

Key valuation signals for MTCPY:

Beneish M-Score: -2.57
GF Value™: $10.75 vs. price of $12.88 (19.8% above fair value)
GF Score™: 80/100 with 4 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the MTCPY stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

MTR Business Description

Industry Industrials Transportation

Comparable Companies HKSE:01766 HKSE:03898 HKSE:03969 HKSE:00062 HKSE:02169 HKSE:01786 HKSE:00306 HKSE:01596 HKSE:00077 UNP CSX TSX:CP TSX:CNR NSC WAB SHSE:601816 TSE:9020 TSE:9022 SHSE:601006 XKRX:064350

Other Exchanges MTRJF:USA 00066:Hong Kong MRI:Germany

Address Kowloon Bay, GPO Box 9916, MTR Headquarters Building, Telford Plaza, Kowloon, Hong Kong, HKG

Website https://www.mtr.com.hk

MTR constructs and operates Hong Kong's rail network, giving it a monopoly position. In addition to rail operation, the company makes recurring income from commercial business in the stations. This includes rental of retail kiosks and advertisement in the stations and investment properties in shopping malls above stations. Residential real estate development forms part of MTR's return for the rail operation. In a normalized environment, average operating profit is approximately 20% in rail operation, 60% in station commercial and property leasing business, and 20% in property development. The Hong Kong government owns 75% of MTR.

80GF Score

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Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$12.88

Price

$10.75

GF Value

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