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Selective Insurance Group (Selective Insurance Group) Beneish M-Score : -1.02 (As of Apr. 26, 2024)


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What is Selective Insurance Group Beneish M-Score?

Note: Financial institutions were excluded from the sample in Beneish paper when calculating Beneish M-Score. Thus, the prediction might not fit banks and insurance companies.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Warning Sign:

Beneish M-Score -1.02 higher than -1.78, which implies that the company might have manipulated its financial results.

The historical rank and industry rank for Selective Insurance Group's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

SIGI' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.68   Med: -2.52   Max: -1.02
Current: -1.02

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Selective Insurance Group was -1.02. The lowest was -2.68. And the median was -2.52.


Selective Insurance Group Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Selective Insurance Group for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.8847+0.528 * 1+0.404 * 4.5569+0.892 * 1.1895+0.115 * 1.261
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.5792+4.679 * -0.034999-0.327 * 0.9335
=-1.02

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec23) TTM:Last Year (Dec22) TTM:
Total Receivables was $1,970 Mil.
Revenue was 1110.791 + 1081.085 + 1040.602 + 999.803 = $4,232 Mil.
Gross Profit was 1110.791 + 1081.085 + 1040.602 + 999.803 = $4,232 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $2,791 Mil.
Total Assets was $11,803 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $83 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $30 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $21 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $128 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $504 Mil.
Net Income was 124.848 + 89.208 + 58.608 + 92.574 = $365 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 5.483 + 5.181 + 6.104 + 2.634 = $19 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 236.602 + 228.66 + 157.877 + 135.769 = $759 Mil.
Total Receivables was $1,872 Mil.
Revenue was 952.278 + 895.02 + 864.818 + 846.062 = $3,558 Mil.
Gross Profit was 952.278 + 895.02 + 864.818 + 846.062 = $3,558 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $8,925 Mil.
Total Assets was $10,802 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $84 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $42 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $31 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $115 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $505 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(1969.904 / 4232.281) / (1872.042 / 3558.178)
=0.465447 / 0.526124
=0.8847

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(3558.178 / 3558.178) / (4232.281 / 4232.281)
=1 / 1
=1

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (2790.526 + 83.272) / 11802.546) / (1 - (8924.631 + 84.306) / 10802.261)
=0.75651 / 0.166014
=4.5569

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=4232.281 / 3558.178
=1.1895

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(42.336 / (42.336 + 84.306)) / (30.04 / (30.04 + 83.272))
=0.334297 / 0.265109
=1.261

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(21.437 / 4232.281) / (31.116 / 3558.178)
=0.005065 / 0.008745
=0.5792

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((503.946 + 128.254) / 11802.546) / ((504.676 + 115.185) / 10802.261)
=0.053565 / 0.057383
=0.9335

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(365.238 - 19.402 - 758.908) / 11802.546
=-0.034999

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Selective Insurance Group has a M-score of -1.02 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.


Selective Insurance Group Beneish M-Score Related Terms

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Selective Insurance Group (Selective Insurance Group) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
40 Wantage Avenue, Branchville, NJ, USA, 07890
Selective Insurance Group Inc is a regional property-casualty insurer based in New Jersey, with its operations focused in the New York metropolitan area. Since 1977, Selective has focused its sales efforts on small businesses, offering commercial products that include workers' compensation, general liability, property, and auto insurance. Selective also has a small personal insurance segment (under 20% of total premiums), selling auto and homeowner's coverage.
Executives
John J. Marchioni officer: EVP, Chief Field Ops Officer 40 WANTAGE AVENUE, BRANCHVILLE X1 07890
Jeffrey F. Kamrowski officer: EVP, MUSIC 40 WANTAGE AVENUE, BRANCHVILLE NJ 07890
Joseph Eppers officer: EVP, Chief Investment Officer 40 WANTAGE AVENUE, BRANCHVILLE NJ 07890
Anthony D. Harnett officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer 40 WANTAGE AVENUE, BRANCHVILLE NJ 07890
Cynthia S Nicholson director 40 WANTAGE AVENUE, BRANCHVILLE NJ 07890
Wole C Coaxum director 40 WANTAGE AVENUE, BRANCHVILLE NJ 07890
Brenda M Hall officer: EVP, CL Chief Op Officer 40 WANTAGE AVE., BRANCHVILLE NJ 07890
Vincent M Senia officer: EVP, Chief Actuary 40 WANTAGE AVE., BRANCHVILLE NJ 07461
John Burville director ACE LTD, ACE BLDG 30 WOODBOURNE AVE HAMILTON BER
Michael J. Morrissey director 40 WANTAGE AVENUE, BRANCHVILLE X1 07890
J Brian Thebault director 40 WANTAGE AVE, BRANCHVILLE NJ 07890
Gregory E Murphy director, officer: Chairman, Chief Executive Offi 40 WANTAGE AVE, BRANCHVILLE NJ 07890
Michael H Lanza officer: Sr. VP and General Counsel 40 WANTAGE AVENUE, BRANCHVILLE NJ 07890
Paul Kush officer: EVP, Chief Claims Officer 40 WANTAGE AVE., BRANCHVILLE NJ 07890
William M Rue director 40 WANTAGE AVE, BRANCHVILLE NJ 07890