China Southern Airlines Co (SHSE:600029) Beneish M-Score: -2.61 (As of Jun. 26, 2026)


SHSE:600029 China Southern Airlines Co Ltd SHSE:600029
64 GF Score
Price ¥5.41
GF Value ¥6.31
Valuation Modestly Undervalued
! 6 Warning Signs
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What is China Southern Airlines Co Beneish M-Score?

China Southern Airlines Co SHSE:600029 -3.05% 64 Beneish M-Score is -2.61 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus rates SHSE:600029 with a GF Score™ of 64/100 and a GF Value™ of ¥6.31 (Modestly Undervalued). The stock has 6 warning signs investors should review. Among 966 Transportation companies, China Southern Airlines Co ranks better than 51.55% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.61 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for China Southern Airlines Co's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

SHSE:600029' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -12.37   Med: -2.98   Max: -0.96
Current: -2.61

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of China Southern Airlines Co was -0.96. The lowest was -12.37. And the median was -2.98.


China Southern Airlines Co Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for China Southern Airlines Co's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

China Southern Airlines Co Beneish M-Score Chart

China Southern Airlines Co Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -3.25 -3.60 -4.64 -2.97 -2.98

China Southern Airlines Co Quarterly Data
Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.99 -2.94 -2.98 -2.98 -2.61

SHSE:600029 vs DAL, UAL, LUV: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Airlines subindustry, China Southern Airlines Co's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


China Southern Airlines Co Beneish M-Score vs Transportation Industry

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, China Southern Airlines Co's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where China Southern Airlines Co's Beneish M-Score falls into.


SHSE:600029
64GF Score
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd SHSE:600029
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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China Southern Airlines Co Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of China Southern Airlines Co for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.4808+0.528 * 0.7272+0.404 * 0.9194+0.892 * 1.0786+0.115 * 1
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9756+4.679 * -0.0997-0.327 * 0.9995
=-2.61

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was ¥5,480 Mil.
Revenue was 47782 + 44591 + 51374 + 42884 = ¥186,631 Mil.
Gross Profit was 5170 + 2373 + 8500 + 3921 = ¥19,964 Mil.
Total Current Assets was ¥44,957 Mil.
Total Assets was ¥356,509 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was ¥277,779 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was ¥0 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was ¥5,939 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was ¥158,657 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was ¥132,674 Mil.
Net Income was 1481 + -1450 + 3840 + -786 = ¥3,085 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = ¥0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 4852 + 5822 + 18046 + 9909 = ¥38,629 Mil.
Total Receivables was ¥3,431 Mil.
Revenue was 43407 + 39563 + 49871 + 40189 = ¥173,030 Mil.
Gross Profit was 3682 + 730 + 7684 + 1363 = ¥13,459 Mil.
Total Current Assets was ¥35,053 Mil.
Total Assets was ¥330,243 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was ¥261,163 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was ¥0 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was ¥5,644 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was ¥136,160 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was ¥133,836 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(5480 / 186631) / (3431 / 173030)
=0.029363 / 0.019829
=1.4808

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(13459 / 173030) / (19964 / 186631)
=0.077784 / 0.10697
=0.7272

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (44957 + 277779) / 356509) / (1 - (35053 + 261163) / 330243)
=0.094733 / 0.103036
=0.9194

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=186631 / 173030
=1.0786

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(0 / (0 + 261163)) / (0 / (0 + 277779))
=0 / 0
=1

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(5939 / 186631) / (5644 / 173030)
=0.031822 / 0.032619
=0.9756

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((132674 + 158657) / 356509) / ((133836 + 136160) / 330243)
=0.817177 / 0.817568
=0.9995

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(3085 - 0 - 38629) / 356509
=-0.0997

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

China Southern Airlines Co has a M-score of -2.61 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.61 mean?
China Southern Airlines Co (SHSE:600029) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.61 as of Jun. 26, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on China Southern Airlines Co and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, China Southern Airlines Co ranks #468 out of 966 companies in the Transportation industry, placing it in the top 48.4%.
Is China Southern Airlines Co's Beneish M-Score too high?
China Southern Airlines Co's current Beneish M-Score is -2.61. Based on the distribution chart, China Southern Airlines Co ranks #468 out of 966 companies in the Transportation industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, China Southern Airlines Co has a GF Score™ of 64/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does China Southern Airlines Co's Beneish M-Score compare to DAL and UAL?
According to the Transportation industry distribution chart, China Southern Airlines Co ranks #468 out of 966 companies for Beneish M-Score. This puts China Southern Airlines Co in the upper half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Transportation company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Transportation industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on China Southern Airlines Co and its competitors. China Southern Airlines Co's current Beneish M-Score is -2.61. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is China Southern Airlines Co stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, China Southern Airlines Co (SHSE:600029) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is ¥6.31, compared to a current price of ¥5.41 — trading 14.3% below its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.61. China Southern Airlines Co's overall GF Score™ is 64/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For China Southern Airlines Co (SHSE:600029), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.61 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is China Southern Airlines Co (SHSE:600029) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, China Southern Airlines Co stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of ¥5.41 is trading 14.3% below its estimated GF Value™ of ¥6.31. GuruFocus considers China Southern Airlines Co to be Modestly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for SHSE:600029:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.61
  • GF Value™: ¥6.31 vs. price of ¥5.41 (14.3% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 64/100 with 6 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the SHSE:600029 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


China Southern Airlines Co Business Description

Address 68 Qixin Road, China Southern Air Building, Baiyun District, Guangdong Province, Guangzhou, CHN, 510403
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd is based in Guangzhou principally engaged in airline operations. The Group also operates certain airline-related businesses, including the provision of aircraft maintenance and air catering services. The Group has two reportable operating segments: airline transportation operations and other segments. Airline transportation operations comprise the Group's passenger and cargo, and mail operations. Other segments include cargo handling, hotel and tour operation, ground services, air catering services, and other miscellaneous services. Geographically, the company operates in the Domestic, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, and International markets.
64GF Score

Get the complete analysis for SHSE:600029

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

¥5.41
Price
¥6.31
GF Value