Casella Waste Systems (STU:WA3) Beneish M-Score: -2.89 (As of Jun. 26, 2026)


STU:WA3 Casella Waste Systems Inc STU:WA3
85 GF Score
Price €80.92
GF Value €106.26
Valuation Modestly Undervalued
! 6 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Casella Waste Systems Beneish M-Score?

Casella Waste Systems STU:WA3 +0.62% 85 Beneish M-Score is -2.89 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus rates STU:WA3 with a GF Score™ of 85/100 and a GF Value™ of €106.26 (Modestly Undervalued). The stock has 6 warning signs investors should review. Among 228 Waste Management companies, Casella Waste Systems ranks better than 70.61% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.89 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Casella Waste Systems's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

STU:WA3' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.23   Med: -2.75   Max: -2.17
Current: -2.89

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Casella Waste Systems was -2.17. The lowest was -3.23. And the median was -2.75.


Casella Waste Systems Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Casella Waste Systems's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Casella Waste Systems Beneish M-Score Chart

Casella Waste Systems Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.80 -2.83 -2.17 -2.71 -2.79

Casella Waste Systems Quarterly Data
Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.67 -2.68 -2.73 -2.79 -2.89

STU:WA3 vs NVRI, ONT, ABAT: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Waste Management subindustry, Casella Waste Systems's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Casella Waste Systems Beneish M-Score vs Waste Management Industry

For the Waste Management industry and Industrials sector, Casella Waste Systems's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Casella Waste Systems's Beneish M-Score falls into.


STU:WA3
85GF Score
Casella Waste Systems Inc STU:WA3
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Casella Waste Systems Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Casella Waste Systems for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.8812+0.528 * 1.0114+0.404 * 1.0454+0.892 * 1.0645+0.115 * 0.8975
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.96+4.679 * -0.093917-0.327 * 0.9948
=-2.95

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was €152 Mil.
Revenue was 395.589 + 400.573 + 413.519 + 403.445 = €1,613 Mil.
Gross Profit was 128.39 + 133.437 + 144.883 + 136.322 = €543 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €311 Mil.
Total Assets was €2,829 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €1,219 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €269 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €193 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €225 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €1,038 Mil.
Net Income was -4.791 + -2.144 + 8.506 + 4.515 = €6 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -6.161 + -7.083 + -3.563 + -5.07 = €-22 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 53.849 + 82.465 + 79.717 + 77.618 = €294 Mil.
Total Receivables was €162 Mil.
Revenue was 385.818 + 408.249 + 370.876 + 350.384 = €1,515 Mil.
Gross Profit was 126.356 + 135.467 + 130.219 + 123.894 = €516 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €455 Mil.
Total Assets was €2,965 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €1,208 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €234 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €189 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €233 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €1,099 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(151.718 / 1613.126) / (161.741 / 1515.327)
=0.094052 / 0.106737
=0.8812

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(515.936 / 1515.327) / (543.032 / 1613.126)
=0.340478 / 0.336633
=1.0114

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (311.137 + 1218.776) / 2828.938) / (1 - (454.822 + 1208.011) / 2965.43)
=0.459192 / 0.439261
=1.0454

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=1613.126 / 1515.327
=1.0645

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(234.226 / (234.226 + 1208.011)) / (269.281 / (269.281 + 1218.776))
=0.162405 / 0.180961
=0.8975

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(193.04 / 1613.126) / (188.901 / 1515.327)
=0.119668 / 0.12466
=0.96

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((1038.394 + 224.89) / 2828.938) / ((1098.656 + 232.534) / 2965.43)
=0.446558 / 0.448903
=0.9948

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(6.086 - -21.877 - 293.649) / 2828.938
=-0.093917

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Casella Waste Systems has a M-score of -2.95 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.89 mean?
Casella Waste Systems (STU:WA3) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.89 as of Jun. 26, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Casella Waste Systems and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Casella Waste Systems ranks #67 out of 228 companies in the Waste Management industry, placing it in the top 29.4%.
Is Casella Waste Systems' Beneish M-Score too high?
Casella Waste Systems' current Beneish M-Score is -2.89. Based on the distribution chart, Casella Waste Systems ranks #67 out of 228 companies in the Waste Management industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Casella Waste Systems has a GF Score™ of 85/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Casella Waste Systems' Beneish M-Score compare to NVRI and ONT?
According to the Waste Management industry distribution chart, Casella Waste Systems ranks #67 out of 228 companies for Beneish M-Score. This puts Casella Waste Systems in the upper half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Waste Management company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Waste Management industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Casella Waste Systems and its competitors. Casella Waste Systems's current Beneish M-Score is -2.89. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Casella Waste Systems stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Casella Waste Systems (STU:WA3) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is €106.26, compared to a current price of €80.92 — trading 23.8% below its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.89. Casella Waste Systems' overall GF Score™ is 85/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Casella Waste Systems (STU:WA3), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.89 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Casella Waste Systems (STU:WA3) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Casella Waste Systems stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of €80.92 is trading 23.8% below its estimated GF Value™ of €106.26. GuruFocus considers Casella Waste Systems to be Modestly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for STU:WA3:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.89
  • GF Value™: €106.26 vs. price of €80.92 (23.8% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 85/100 with 6 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the STU:WA3 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Casella Waste Systems Business Description

Other Exchanges CWST:USAWA3:Germany
Address 25 Greens Hill Lane, Rutland, VT, USA, 05701
Casella Waste Systems Inc is a solid waste removal company, providing resource management services to residential, commercial, municipal, and industrial customers. The company's reportable segments on Geographical basis include Eastern, Western and Mid-Atlantic regions through the Resource solution segment. It generates maximum revenue from the Western region segment. The company's services include Recycling, Collection, Organics, Energy, Landfills, Special Waste as well as Professional Services.
85GF Score

Get the complete analysis for STU:WA3

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

€80.92
Price
€106.26
GF Value