Nakamuraya Co (TSE:2204) Beneish M-Score: -2.40 (As of Sep. 06, 2026)

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TSE:2204 Nakamuraya Co Ltd TSE:2204
67 GF Score
Price 円3,200.00
GF Value 円3,246.62
Valuation Fairly Valued
! 2 Warning Signs
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What is Nakamuraya Co Beneish M-Score?

Nakamuraya Co TSE:2204 +0.95% 67 Beneish M-Score is -2.40 as of Sep. 06, 2026. GuruFocus rates TSE:2204 with a GF Score™ of 67/100 and a GF Value™ of 円3,246.62 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 2 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,886 Consumer Packaged Goods companies, Nakamuraya Co ranks worse than 59.44% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.4 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Nakamuraya Co's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

TSE:2204' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.49   Med: -2.42   Max: -1.36
Current: -2.4

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Nakamuraya Co was -1.36. The lowest was -3.49. And the median was -2.42.


Nakamuraya Co Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Nakamuraya Co's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Nakamuraya Co Beneish M-Score Chart

Nakamuraya Co Annual Data
Trend Mar17 Mar18 Mar19 Mar20 Mar21 Mar22 Mar23 Mar24 Mar25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.39 -2.48 -2.07 -2.64 -2.72

Nakamuraya Co Quarterly Data
Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26 Jun26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.94 -1.61 -1.36 -2.72 -2.40

TSE:2204 vs KHC, GIS: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Packaged Foods subindustry, Nakamuraya Co's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Nakamuraya Co Beneish M-Score vs Consumer Packaged Goods Industry

For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Nakamuraya Co's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Nakamuraya Co's Beneish M-Score falls into.


TSE:2204
67GF Score
Nakamuraya Co Ltd TSE:2204
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Nakamuraya Co Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Nakamuraya Co for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.4877+0.528 * 0.7497+0.404 * 1.5645+0.892 * 2.0232+0.115 * 0.6667
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.7641+4.679 * -0.107726-0.327 * 0.874
=-2.40

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Jun26) TTM:Last Year (Jun25) TTM:
Total Receivables was 円2,408 Mil.
Revenue was 5489.04 + 11427.167 + 13428.208 + 6836.048 = 円37,180 Mil.
Gross Profit was 1315.253 + 4631.562 + 5793.559 + 2083.34 = 円13,824 Mil.
Total Current Assets was 円8,269 Mil.
Total Assets was 円47,989 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was 円24,912 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was 円1,765 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was 円12,557 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was 円4,896 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was 円344 Mil.
Net Income was -827.474 + 809.203 + 1435.733 + -616.124 = 円801 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = 円0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was -827.946 + 4538.999 + 445.102 + 1814.797 = 円5,971 Mil.
Total Receivables was 円2,440 Mil.
Revenue was 5659.721 + 0 + 7079.64 + 5637.297 = 円18,377 Mil.
Gross Profit was 1468.897 + 0 + 2074.988 + 1578.125 = 円5,122 Mil.
Total Current Assets was 円8,493 Mil.
Total Assets was 円42,349 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was 円25,504 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was 円1,177 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was 円8,122 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was 円4,908 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was 円383 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(2408.182 / 37180.463) / (2440.381 / 18376.658)
=0.06477 / 0.132798
=0.4877

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(5122.01 / 18376.658) / (13823.714 / 37180.463)
=0.278724 / 0.3718
=0.7497

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (8269.356 + 24911.796) / 47988.63) / (1 - (8492.523 + 25504.273) / 42349.223)
=0.308562 / 0.197227
=1.5645

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=37180.463 / 18376.658
=2.0232

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(1176.766 / (1176.766 + 25504.273)) / (1764.876 / (1764.876 + 24911.796))
=0.044105 / 0.066158
=0.6667

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(12557.364 / 37180.463) / (8122.346 / 18376.658)
=0.337741 / 0.441993
=0.7641

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((343.952 + 4895.97) / 47988.63) / ((382.706 + 4908.265) / 42349.223)
=0.109191 / 0.124937
=0.874

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(801.338 - 0 - 5970.952) / 47988.63
=-0.107726

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Nakamuraya Co has a M-score of -2.40 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.40 mean?
Nakamuraya Co (TSE:2204) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.40 as of Sep. 06, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Nakamuraya Co and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Nakamuraya Co ranks #1121 out of 1886 companies in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry, placing it in the top 59.4%.
Is Nakamuraya Co's Beneish M-Score too high?
Nakamuraya Co's current Beneish M-Score is -2.40. Based on the distribution chart, Nakamuraya Co ranks #1121 out of 1886 companies in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Nakamuraya Co has a GF Score™ of 67/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Nakamuraya Co's Beneish M-Score compare to KHC and GIS?
According to the Consumer Packaged Goods industry distribution chart, Nakamuraya Co ranks #1121 out of 1886 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places Nakamuraya Co in the lower half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Consumer Packaged Goods company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Consumer Packaged Goods industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Nakamuraya Co and its competitors. Nakamuraya Co's current Beneish M-Score is -2.40. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Nakamuraya Co stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Nakamuraya Co (TSE:2204) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is 円3,246.62, compared to a current price of 円3,200.00 — trading 1.4% below its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.40. Nakamuraya Co's overall GF Score™ is 67/100 with 2 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Nakamuraya Co (TSE:2204), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.40 as of Sep. 06, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Nakamuraya Co (TSE:2204) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Nakamuraya Co stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of 円3,200.00 is trading 1.4% below its estimated GF Value™ of 円3,246.62. GuruFocus considers Nakamuraya Co to be Fairly Valued.

Key valuation signals for TSE:2204:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.40
  • GF Value™: 円3,246.62 vs. price of 円3,200.00 (1.4% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 67/100 with 2 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the TSE:2204 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Nakamuraya Co Business Description

Address Shinjuku 3-chome No. 26-13, Tokyo, JPN, 160-0022
Nakamuraya Co Ltd is engaged in the manufacturing and sale of confectionaries. Some of the products manufactured are - moon cake, cream bread, water cane, and karinto.
67GF Score

Get the complete analysis for TSE:2204

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

円3,200.00
Price
円3,246.62
GF Value