Mercari (TSE:4385) Beneish M-Score: -1.83 (As of Jul. 10, 2026)


TSE:4385 Mercari Inc TSE:4385
58 GF Score
Price 円4,785.00
GF Value 円2,977.32
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 9 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Mercari Beneish M-Score?

Mercari TSE:4385 +3.64% 58 Beneish M-Score is -1.83 as of Jul. 10, 2026. GuruFocus rates TSE:4385 with a GF Score™ of 58/100 and a GF Value™ of 円2,977.32 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 9 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,081 Retail - Cyclical companies, Mercari ranks worse than 81.59% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -1.83 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Mercari's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

TSE:4385' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.3   Med: -1.65   Max: -0.38
Current: -1.83

During the past 10 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Mercari was -0.38. The lowest was -2.30. And the median was -1.65.


Mercari Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Mercari's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Mercari Beneish M-Score Chart

Mercari Annual Data
Trend Jun16 Jun17 Jun18 Jun19 Jun20 Jun21 Jun22 Jun23 Jun24 Jun25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -1.05 -2.06 -1.14 -1.44 -1.85

Mercari Quarterly Data
Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.16 -1.85 -2.21 -1.83 -1.83

TSE:4385 vs AMZN, BABA, PDD: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Internet Retail subindustry, Mercari's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Mercari Beneish M-Score vs Retail - Cyclical Industry

For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Mercari's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Mercari's Beneish M-Score falls into.


TSE:4385
58GF Score
Mercari Inc TSE:4385
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Mercari Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Mercari for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.2666+0.528 * 0.966+0.404 * 0.6989+0.892 * 1.1325+0.115 * 1.3196
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9332+4.679 * 0.07877-0.327 * 0.9798
=-1.83

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was 円337,771 Mil.
Revenue was 61036 + 56815 + 49440 + 48566 = 円215,857 Mil.
Gross Profit was 45625 + 41893 + 35936 + 34989 = 円158,443 Mil.
Total Current Assets was 円591,805 Mil.
Total Assets was 円673,763 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was 円9,620 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was 円1,855 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was 円115,979 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was 円426,039 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was 円126,062 Mil.
Net Income was 8845 + 5599 + 4987 + 14382 = 円33,813 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = 円0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was -17966 + -19456 + 18163 + 0 = 円-19,259 Mil.
Total Receivables was 円235,465 Mil.
Revenue was 49906 + 49237 + 44924 + 46529 = 円190,596 Mil.
Gross Profit was 36648 + 35299 + 31322 + 31877 = 円135,146 Mil.
Total Current Assets was 円436,290 Mil.
Total Assets was 円523,097 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was 円6,450 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was 円1,749 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was 円109,736 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was 円324,956 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was 円112,542 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(337771 / 215857) / (235465 / 190596)
=1.564791 / 1.235414
=1.2666

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(135146 / 190596) / (158443 / 215857)
=0.70907 / 0.734018
=0.966

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (591805 + 9620) / 673763) / (1 - (436290 + 6450) / 523097)
=0.107364 / 0.153618
=0.6989

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=215857 / 190596
=1.1325

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(1749 / (1749 + 6450)) / (1855 / (1855 + 9620))
=0.213319 / 0.161656
=1.3196

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(115979 / 215857) / (109736 / 190596)
=0.537296 / 0.575752
=0.9332

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((126062 + 426039) / 673763) / ((112542 + 324956) / 523097)
=0.819429 / 0.836361
=0.9798

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(33813 - 0 - -19259) / 673763
=0.07877

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Mercari has a M-score of -1.83 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -1.83 mean?
Mercari (TSE:4385) has a Beneish M-Score of -1.83 as of Jul. 10, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Mercari and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Mercari ranks #882 out of 1081 companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry, placing it in the top 81.6%.
Is Mercari's Beneish M-Score too high?
Mercari's current Beneish M-Score is -1.83. Based on the distribution chart, Mercari ranks #882 out of 1081 companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, Mercari has a GF Score™ of 58/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Mercari's Beneish M-Score compare to AMZN and BABA?
According to the Retail - Cyclical industry distribution chart, Mercari ranks #882 out of 1081 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places Mercari in the lower half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Retail - Cyclical company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Retail - Cyclical industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Mercari and its competitors. Mercari's current Beneish M-Score is -1.83. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Mercari stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Mercari (TSE:4385) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is 円2,977.32, compared to a current price of 円4,785.00 — trading 60.7% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -1.83. Mercari's overall GF Score™ is 58/100 with 9 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Mercari (TSE:4385), the current Beneish M-Score is -1.83 as of Jul. 10, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Mercari (TSE:4385) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Mercari stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of 円4,785.00 is trading 60.7% above its estimated GF Value™ of 円2,977.32. GuruFocus considers Mercari to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for TSE:4385:

  • Beneish M-Score: -1.83
  • GF Value™: 円2,977.32 vs. price of 円4,785.00 (60.7% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 58/100 with 9 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the TSE:4385 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Mercari Business Description

Other Exchanges MCARY:USA6TP:Germany
Address 6-10-1 Roppongi, 18th Floor, Roppongi Hills Mori Tower, Minato-ku, Tokyo, JPN, 106-6118
Mercari operates the largest consumer-to-consumer secondhand goods trading platform in Japan in Mercari, with over 23 million monthly active users and over JPY 1.1 trillion in gross merchandise value in fiscal 2022. We estimate that it currently has over 40% market share in the online C2C market, making it the top platform in Japan. It operates a domestic fintech business and a C2C marketplace app business in the US as well. Domestic business roughly accounts for over 95% of its total GMV.
58GF Score

Get the complete analysis for TSE:4385

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

円4,785.00
Price
円2,977.32
GF Value