National Company KazMunayGaz JSC (XKAZ:KMGZ) Beneish M-Score: -1.54 (As of Sep. 21, 2026)

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Reviewed by: Charlie Tian Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Founder & CEO of GuruFocus
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

XKAZ:KMGZ National Company KazMunayGaz JSC XKAZ:KMGZ
65 GF Score
Price ₸35,560.00
GF Value ₸19,777.96
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 7 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is National Company KazMunayGaz JSC Beneish M-Score?

National Company KazMunayGaz JSC XKAZ:KMGZ +0.03% 65 Beneish M-Score is -1.54 as of Sep. 21, 2026. GuruFocus rates XKAZ:KMGZ with a GF Score™ of 65/100 and a GF Value™ of ₸19,777.96 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review. Among 830 Oil & Gas companies, National Company KazMunayGaz JSC ranks worse than 86.39% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Warning Sign:

Beneish M-Score -1.54 higher than -1.78, which implies that the company might have manipulated its financial results.

The historical rank and industry rank for National Company KazMunayGaz JSC's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

XKAZ:KMGZ' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.97   Med: -2.18   Max: 2.54
Current: -1.54

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of National Company KazMunayGaz JSC was 2.54. The lowest was -2.97. And the median was -2.18.


National Company KazMunayGaz JSC Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for National Company KazMunayGaz JSC's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

National Company KazMunayGaz JSC Beneish M-Score Chart

National Company KazMunayGaz JSC Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -1.91 -2.99 -2.63 -3.14 -2.62

National Company KazMunayGaz JSC Quarterly Data
Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26 Jun26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.85 -2.69 -2.61 -2.38 -1.83

XKAZ:KMGZ vs MPC, VLO, PSX: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing subindustry, National Company KazMunayGaz JSC's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


National Company KazMunayGaz JSC Beneish M-Score vs Oil & Gas Industry

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, National Company KazMunayGaz JSC's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where National Company KazMunayGaz JSC's Beneish M-Score falls into.


XKAZ:KMGZ
65GF Score
National Company KazMunayGaz JSC XKAZ:KMGZ
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

National Company KazMunayGaz JSC Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of National Company KazMunayGaz JSC for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.9354+0.528 * 0.9472+0.404 * 0.9567+0.892 * 1.215+0.115 * 0.863
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.8992+4.679 * -0.09068-0.327 * 0.9473
=-1.88

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Jun26) TTM:Last Year (Jun25) TTM:
Total Receivables was ₸2,173,784 Mil.
Revenue was 3086838 + 2480916 + 2313914 + 2557080 = ₸10,438,748 Mil.
Gross Profit was 720089 + 691976 + 481886 + 581105 = ₸2,475,056 Mil.
Total Current Assets was ₸5,145,689 Mil.
Total Assets was ₸18,970,318 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was ₸7,371,514 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was ₸769,960 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was ₸560,940 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was ₸1,828,043 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was ₸3,107,410 Mil.
Net Income was 178540 + 172253 + -142348 + 214888 = ₸423,333 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = ₸0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 1028030 + 159091 + 358011 + 598428 = ₸2,143,560 Mil.
Total Receivables was ₸924,387 Mil.
Revenue was 2259243 + 2241251 + 1981643 + 2109258 = ₸8,591,395 Mil.
Gross Profit was 470486 + 478976 + 400093 + 579889 = ₸1,929,444 Mil.
Total Current Assets was ₸4,481,014 Mil.
Total Assets was ₸19,053,866 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was ₸7,797,781 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was ₸692,975 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was ₸513,397 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was ₸1,738,237 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was ₸3,494,522 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(2173784 / 10438748) / (924387 / 8591395)
=0.208242 / 0.107595
=1.9354

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(1929444 / 8591395) / (2475056 / 10438748)
=0.224579 / 0.237103
=0.9472

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (5145689 + 7371514) / 18970318) / (1 - (4481014 + 7797781) / 19053866)
=0.340169 / 0.355575
=0.9567

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=10438748 / 8591395
=1.215

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(692975 / (692975 + 7797781)) / (769960 / (769960 + 7371514))
=0.081615 / 0.094573
=0.863

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(560940 / 10438748) / (513397 / 8591395)
=0.053736 / 0.059757
=0.8992

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((3107410 + 1828043) / 18970318) / ((3494522 + 1738237) / 19053866)
=0.260167 / 0.27463
=0.9473

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(423333 - 0 - 2143560) / 18970318
=-0.09068

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

National Company KazMunayGaz JSC has a M-score of -1.88 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -1.54 mean?
National Company KazMunayGaz JSC (XKAZ:KMGZ) has a Beneish M-Score of -1.54 as of Sep. 21, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on National Company KazMunayGaz JSC and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, National Company KazMunayGaz JSC ranks #717 out of 830 companies in the Oil & Gas industry, placing it in the top 86.4%.
Is National Company KazMunayGaz JSC's Beneish M-Score too high?
National Company KazMunayGaz JSC's current Beneish M-Score is -1.54. Based on the distribution chart, National Company KazMunayGaz JSC ranks #717 out of 830 companies in the Oil & Gas industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, National Company KazMunayGaz JSC has a GF Score™ of 65/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does National Company KazMunayGaz JSC's Beneish M-Score compare to MPC and VLO?
According to the Oil & Gas industry distribution chart, National Company KazMunayGaz JSC ranks #717 out of 830 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places National Company KazMunayGaz JSC in the lower half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for an Oil & Gas company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Oil & Gas industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on National Company KazMunayGaz JSC and its competitors. National Company KazMunayGaz JSC's current Beneish M-Score is -1.54. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is National Company KazMunayGaz JSC stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, National Company KazMunayGaz JSC (XKAZ:KMGZ) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is ₸19,777.96, compared to a current price of ₸35,560.00 — trading 79.8% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -1.54. National Company KazMunayGaz JSC's overall GF Score™ is 65/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For National Company KazMunayGaz JSC (XKAZ:KMGZ), the current Beneish M-Score is -1.54 as of Sep. 21, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is National Company KazMunayGaz JSC (XKAZ:KMGZ) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, National Company KazMunayGaz JSC stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of ₸35,560.00 is trading 79.8% above its estimated GF Value™ of ₸19,777.96. GuruFocus considers National Company KazMunayGaz JSC to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for XKAZ:KMGZ:

  • Beneish M-Score: -1.54
  • GF Value™: ₸19,777.96 vs. price of ₸35,560.00 (79.8% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 65/100 with 7 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the XKAZ:KMGZ stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


National Company KazMunayGaz JSC Business Description

Industry EnergyOil & Gas
Address Kunayev street, 8, Republic of Kazakhstan D, Astana, KAZ, 010000
National Company KazMunayGaz JSC Group's activities comprise the exploration and production of oil and gas, transportation, refining, and marketing of hydrocarbons and petroleum products, with trading activities carried out in the Republic of Kazakhstan. The Group's activity consists of three main operating segments: exploration and production of oil and gas, oil transportation, and refining and trading of crude oil and refined products, which generates maximum revenue. It operates in the UAE, which generates maximum revenue, as well as in Kazakhstan, Romania, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and other countries.
65GF Score

Get the complete analysis for XKAZ:KMGZ

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

₸35,560.00
Price
₸19,777.96
GF Value