GDL Fund (GDL Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is GDL Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

GDL Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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GDL Fund (GDL Fund) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » GDL Fund (NYSE:GDL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GDLpC.PFD:USA

Address

One Corporate Center, Rye, NY, USA, 10580-1422

Website

https://www.gabelli.com

GDL Fund is a diversified closed-end management investment company. Its primary investment objective is to achieve absolute returns in various market conditions without excessive risk of capital. The fund seeks to achieve its objective by investing in merger arbitrage transactions and, to a lesser extent, in corporate reorganizations involving stubs, spin-offs, and liquidations.

Executives

Mario J Gabelli	other: Trustee	191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Peter D. Goldstein	officer: Secretary	249 ROYAL PALM WAY, SUITE 503, PALM BEACH FL 33480
James P Conn	other: Trustee
Anthony S. Colavita	director	C/O GAMCO INVESTORS, INC., ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
John Chester Ball	officer: Treasurer	800 CONNECTICUT AVENUE, NORWALK CT 06854
Leslie Fahrenkopf Foley	director	C/O GAMCO INVESTORS, INC., ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Michael J Melarkey	other: Trustee	ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Bruce N Alpert	officer: President	C/O GAMCO INVESTORS, INC., ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Gpj Retirement Partners, Llc	other: Limited Liability Company	1 CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Gabelli Securities Inc	other: Subsidiary of GAMCO	ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Mjg Iv Limited Partnership	other: Partnership
Relative Value Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	1033 SKOKIE BOULEVARD, SUITE 470, NORTHBROOK IL 60062
Clarence A Davis	other: Trustee	ONEIDA LTD., 163-181 KENWOOD AVENUE, ONEIDA NY 13421
Edward T Tokar	other: Trustee
Arthur V Ferrara	other: Trustee	ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580