ABVC (ABVC BioPharma) Predictability Rank

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What is ABVC BioPharma Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ABVC BioPharma Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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ABVC BioPharma Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » ABVC BioPharma Inc (NAS:ABVC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

44370 Old Warm Springs Boulevard, Fremont, CA, USA, 94538

Website

https://www.abvcpharma.com

ABVC BioPharma Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceuticals company with an active pipeline of six drugs and one medical device (ABV-1701/Vitargus) under development. For its drug products, it is focused on utilizing its licensed technology to conduct proof-of-concept trials through Phase II of the clinical development process. The firm is specialized in botanically based solutions that deliver high efficacy with low toxicity for improved health outcomes.

Executives

Shuling Jiang	director, 10 percent owner	44370 OLD WARM SPRINGS BLVD., FREMONT CA 94538
Shih-chen Tseng	director	5F., NO. 41-1, LN. 12, SINDONG ST., SONGSHAN DIST, TAIPEI CITY F5 105065
Yoshinobu Odaira	director	4823 DUNDAS STREET, THOMDALE, LONDON X0 N6P 1J1
Norimi Sakamoto	director	4823 DUNDAS STREET, THRONDALE, LONDON X0 N6P 1J1
Shin-yu Miao	director	NO. 25-12, AMLIN RD., XITUN DIST., TAICHUNG CITY F5 407676
Tsung Shann Jiang	director, officer: CSO and Director	1197 LA PLURISSIMA PL, FREMONT CA 94539
Eugene Jiang	director, officer: Chairman of the Board & CBO	1197 LA PLURISSIMA PL, FREMONT CA 94539
Chang-jen Jiang	director	1197 LA PLURISSIMA PL, FREMONT CA 94539
Yen-hsin Chou	director	13F. NO. 2, MEISHU E. 8TH ST.,, GUSHAN DIST., KAOHSIUNG CITY F5 804413
Chi-hsin Richard King	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	11907 GRANT PLACE, SAINT LOUIS MO 63131
Howard Doong	officer: Chief Executive Officer	44370 OLD WARM SPRINGS BLVD., FREMONT CA 94538
Chihliang An	officer: Chief Financial Officer	32458 JEAN DR, UNION CITY CA 94587
Tsang Ming Jiang	director	1197 LA PURISSIMA PL, FREMONT CA 94539
Shulamit Lazar	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President,Secretary,Treasurer	8605 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 41336, LOS ANGELES CA 90069
Kevin Patrick Stolz	officer: CFO & Controller	2701 CAMBRIDGE COURT, SUITE 100, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326