Acorn Energy (Acorn Energy) Predictability Rank

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What is Acorn Energy Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Acorn Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Acorn Energy (Acorn Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Acorn Energy Inc (OTCPK:ACFN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1000 N West Street, Suite 1200, Wilmington, DE, USA, 19801

Website

https://www.acornenergy.com

Acorn Energy Inc is a holding company which focuses on technology-driven solutions for energy infrastructure asset management. It operates through two segments namely, the PG segment and the CP segment. PG segment provides wireless remote monitoring and control systems and services for critical assets as well as Internet of Things applications which account for majority of the revenue. CP segment is engaged in providing remote monitoring of cathodic protection systems on gas pipelines for gas utilities and pipeline companies.

Executives

Tracy Simmons Clifford	officer: CFO	10 N. ADGER'S WHARF, CHARLESTON SC 29401
Jan H Loeb	director, officer: President and CEO	LEAP TIDE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, 10451 MILL RUN CIRCLE SUITE 400, OWINGS MILLS MD 21117
Peter Rabover	director	C/O ARTKO CAPITAL LLC, 1091 E BAYAUD AVE, APT W2808, DENVER CO 80209
Gary Mohr	director	C/O UE SYSTEMS INC., 14 HAYES STREET, ELMSFORD NY 10532
Leap Tide Capital Acorn Llc	10 percent owner	10451 MILL RUN CIRCLE, SUITE 400, OWINGS MILLS MD 21117
Walter Iv Czarnecki	officer: OmniMetrix LLC President & CEO	OMNIMETRIX, LLC, 4295 HAMILTON MILL ROAD, SUITE 100, BUFORD GA 30518
Michael Osterer	director	C/O UE SYSTEMS INC., 14 HAYES STREET, ELMSFORD NY 10532
Woolard Edgar S Jr	director	C/O NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC., 11 WALL STREET, NEW YORK NY 10005
John A Moore	officer: Chief Executive Officer	403 MARSH LANE, WILMINGTON DE 19807
Christopher E Clouser	director	C/O ACORN ENERGY, INC., 4 WEST ROCKLAND RD, MONTCHANIN DE 19710
Mannie L Jackson	director	ALFRED P SLOAN FOUNDATION, 630 FIFTH AVENUE SUITE 2550, NEW YORK NY 10111-0242
Mark A Bashforth	officer: CEO and President of USSI	C/O ACORN ENERGY, INC., 3903 CENTERVILLE ROAD, WILMINGTON DE 19807
Andy Sassine	director	82 DEVONSHIRE STREET, BOSTON MA 02109
Mckee Robert E Iii	director	14927 SANDALFOOT, HOUSTON TX 77095
Deena Redding	officer: President of OmniMetrix, LLC	OMNIMETRIX, LLC, 5225 BELLE WOOD COURT, BUFORD GA 30518