Achieve Life Sciences (Achieve Life Sciences) Predictability Rank

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What is Achieve Life Sciences Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Achieve Life Sciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Achieve Life Sciences (Achieve Life Sciences) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Achieve Life Sciences Inc (NAS:ACHV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SP4P:Germany

Address

22722 29th Dr. SE, Suite 1000, Bothell, WA, USA, 98021

Website

https://www.achievelifesciences.com

Achieve Life Sciences Inc is a specialty pharmaceutical company committed to advancing cytisinicline as a widely available treatment option to help people battling nicotine addiction. It is an established smoking cessation treatment that has been approved and marketed in Central and Eastern Europe. Achieve's focus is to address the global smoking health epidemic through the development and commercialization of cytisinicline. It has one operating segment, dedicated to the development and commercialization of cytisinicline for nicotine addiction.

Executives

John Bencich	officer: CFO and PFO	2401 FOURTH AVENUE, SUITE 1050, SEATTLE WA 98121
Stuart Duty	director	22722 29TH DR SE, SUITE 100, BOTHELL WA 98021
Thomas Sellig	director	22722 29TH DR SE, SUITE 100, BOTHELL WA 98021
Thomas Braxton King	director	91 JAMES AVENUE, ATHERTON CA 94027
Dialectic Life Sciences Spv Llc	10 percent owner	C/O DIALECTIC LS MANAGER LLC, 119 ROWAYTON AVENUE, 2ND FLOOR, NORWALK CT 06853
Dialectic Ls Manager Llc	10 percent owner	119 ROWAYTON AVENUE, 2ND FLOOR, NORWALK CT 06853
John Fichthorn	10 percent owner	C/O DIALECTIC CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 17 STATE STREET, SUITE 3930, NEW YORK NY 10004
Dialectic Capital Management, Lp	10 percent owner	119 ROWAYTON AVENUE, 2ND FLOOR, NORWALK CT 06853
Dialectic Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	2ND FLOOR 119 ROWAYTON AVE, NORWALK CT 06853
Vaughn B Himes	director	C/O SEATTLE GENETICS, INC., 21823 30TH DRIVE SE, BOTHELL WA 98021
Financial Group Svb	10 percent owner	2270 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Svb Innovation Credit Partners Viii, Llc	10 percent owner	2770 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO CITY CA 94025
Svb Innovation Credit Fund Viii, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O SVB INNOVATION CREDIT PARTNERS VIII, 2770 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Innovation Credit Fund Viii-a, L.p.	10 percent owner	2770 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Svb Innovation Credit Partners Viii-a, Llc	10 percent owner	2770 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO CITY CA 94025