ACMR (ACM Research) Predictability Rank

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What is ACM Research Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ACM Research Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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ACM Research Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » ACM Research Inc (NAS:ACMR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1ACMR:Italy 813:Germany

Address

42307 Osgood Road, Suite I, Fremont, CA, USA, 94539

Website

https://www.acmrcsh.com

ACM Research Inc supplies advanced, innovative capital equipment developed for the global semiconductor industry. Fabricators of advanced integrated circuits, or chips, can use its wet-cleaning and other front-end processing tools in numerous steps to improve product yield, even at increasingly advanced process nodes. It has designed these tools for use in fabricating foundry, logic and memory chips, including dynamic random-access memory, or DRAM, and 3D NAND-flash memory chips. The company also develops, manufactures and sells advanced packaging tools to wafer assembly and packaging customers.

Executives

David H Wang	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	C/O ACM RESEARCH, INC., 42307 OSGOOD ROAD, SUITE I, FREMONT CA 94539
Mark Mckechnie	officer: See remarks	ACM RESEARCH, INC., 42307 OSGOOD ROAD, SUITE I, FREMONT CA 94539
Chenming Hu	director	2060 PEBBLE DRIVE, ALAMO CA 94507
Haiping Dun	director	C/O ACM RESEARCH, INC., 42307 OSGOOD ROAD, SUITE I, FREMONT CA 94539
Sotheara Cheav	officer: See Remarks	C/O ACM RESEARCH, INC., 42307 OSGOOD ROAD, SUITE I, FREMONT CA 94539
Xiao Xing	director	C/O ACM RESEARCH, INC., 42307 OSGOOD ROAD, SUITE I, FREEMONT CA 94539
Shanghai Science & Technology Venture Capital (group) Co., Ltd.	10 percent owner, other: Possible member of 10% group	FLOOR 16-17, #118 RONGKE ROAD, PUDONG DISTRICT, SHANGHAI F4 201203
Jian Wang	officer: See Remarks	C/O ACM RESEARCH, INC., 42307 OSGOOD ROAD, SUITE I, FREMONT CA 94539
Lisa Feng	officer: See remarks	ACM RESEARCH, INC., 42307 OSGOOD ROAD, SUITE I, FREMONT CA 94539
Tracy Liu	director	C/O ACM RESEARCH, INC., 42307 OSGOOD ROAD, SUITE I, FREMONT CA 94539
Fuping Chen	officer: See Remarks	ACM RESEARCH, INC., 42307 OSGOOD ROAD, SUITE I, FREMONT CA 94539
Shanghai Pudong Science & Technology Investment Group Co., Ltd.	10 percent owner, other: Possible member of 10% group	FLOOR 16-17, #118 RONGKE ROAD, PUDONG DISTRICT, SHANGHAI F4 200120
Yinan Xiang	director	C/O ACM RESEARCH, INC., 42307 OSGOOD ROAD, SUITE I, FREMONT CA 94539
Zhengfan Yang	director	XINXIN (HONGKONG) CAPITAL CO., LIMITED, 3RD FLOOR NORTH, NO. 7 FINANCIAL STREET, XICHENG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100033
Fufa Chen	officer: See Remarks	C/O ACM RESEARCH, INC., 42307 OSGOOD ROAD, SUITE I, FREMONT CA 94539