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ACRG (American Clean Resources Group) Predictability Rank


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What is American Clean Resources Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

American Clean Resources Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

American Clean Resources Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

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American Clean Resources Group Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » American Clean Resources Group Inc (OTCPK:ACRG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
LODE DYNR NMEX AHNR THMG AMNP SILS AUMN SRGZ CGLD ISX:AMMN JSE:AMS SZSE:000975 LSE:FRES JSE:IMP LIM:BUENAVC1 HL ISX:MBMA TSX:TFPM MIC:ALRS
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
12567 West Cedar Drive, Suite 203, Lakewood, CO, USA, 80228-2039
Website
https://www.acrgincorp.com
American Clean Resources Group Inc is an exploration stage company that plans to be a custom processing and permitted toll milling service provider for minerals in the gold, silver, and platinum metal groups. The company seeks to provide toll milling and refining services by building a facility on its Tonopah property which includes an analytical lab, pyrometallurgical, and hydrometallurgical recovery plant.
Executives
Launch It, Llc 10 percent owner 950 SWAN STREET, LOUISVILLE KY 40204
Granite Peak Resources, Llc 10 percent owner 1712 PIONEER STREET, SUITE 1755, CHEYENNE WY 82011
Sharon Ullman director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, Chairman of the Board AFIGNIS LLC C/O CBIZ, 1065 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 11TH FLR, NEW YORK NY 10018
J. Bryan Read director, officer: Interim CEO 815 RED EAGLE ROAD, OHATCHEE AL 36271
Jonathan Spier officer: Chief Operating Officer 611 WALNUT STREET, GADSDEN AL 35901
Pure Path Capital Management Company, Llc 10 percent owner 5348 VEGAS DRIVE, SUITE 623, LAS VEGAS NV 89108
James Brian Stieben director 611 WALNUT STREET, GADSDEN AL 35901
Joseph Rosamilia officer: Chief Financial Officer 611 WALNUT STREET, GADSDEN AL 35901
Tina Gregerson director, 10 percent owner, officer: Secretary 7 DEY STREET, SUITE 1503, NEW YORK NY 10007
Michael Markiewicz director, 10 percent owner 7 DEY STREET, SUITE 1503, NEW YORK NY 10007
Blair C Mielke director 618 N. BURKHARDT ROAD, EVANSVILLE IN 47715
Afignis Llc 10 percent owner C/O CBIZ, 1065 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Leslie Lucas Partners Llc 10 percent owner C/O JAMES LISA, 618 NEWARK AVENUE, SUITE 220, JERSEY CITY NJ 07306
Manfred E Birnbaum director N93 W14475 WHITTAKER WAY, MENOMONEE FALLS WI 53051
Alfred A Rapetti director 234 BRAZILIAN AVE, PALM BEACH FL 33480