Adamas Pharmaceuticals (Adamas Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Adamas Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Adamas Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Adamas Pharmaceuticals (Adamas Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Adamas Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:ADMS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1900 Powell Street, Suite 1000, Emeryville, CA, USA, 94608

Website

http://www.adamaspharma.com

Adamas Pharmaceuticals Inc discovers, develops, and sells therapies for chronic neurologic disorders. The company's approved/commercial product is GOCOVRI, an amantadine therapy for the treatment of levodopa-induced dyskinesia in patients with Parkinson's disease. It operates in one reportable segment: the development and commercialization of therapeutics targeting chronic disorders of the central nervous system. The company generates its revenues primarily from the United States.

Executives

Vijay Shreedhar	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O ADAMAS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. 1900 POWELL STREET, SUITE 1000 EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Christopher B Prentiss	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1900 POWELL STREET SUITE 750 EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Anna Richo	director	AMGEN INC., ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320-1799
David L Mahoney	director	SYMANTEC CORPORATION, 20330 STEVENS CREEK BLVD., CUPERTINO CA 95014
Mardi Dier	director	C/O ACELYRIN, INC., 4149 LIBERTY CANYON RD., AGOURA HILLS CA 91301
William W. Ericson	director, 10 percent owner	777 MARINERS ISLAND BOULEVARD, SUITE 550, SAN MATEO CA 94404
John A Macphee	director	C/O ADAMAS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. 1900 POWELL ST., SUITE 750 EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Ivan M Lieberburg	director	11682 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 320, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Michael Bigham	director	890 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Martha J Demski	director	7770 REGENTS ROAD SUITE 113-505, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Neil F. Mcfarlane	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O RETROPHIN, INC., 12255 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 250, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Alfred G Merriweather	officer: Chief Financial Officer
Jennifer J Rhodes	officer: CBO, GC & Compliance Officer	C/O ADAMAS PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 1900 POWELL ST., SUITE 750, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Gregory T Went	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ADAMAS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. 2200 POWELL ST, STE 220 EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Rajiv Patni	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O OCERA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 525 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, SUITE 610, PALO ALTO CA 94301