What is Adtran Holdings Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Adtran Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Adtran Holdings (Adtran Holdings) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
901 Explorer Boulevard, Huntsville, AL, USA, 35806-2807
Adtran Inc is a provider of networking and communications platforms, software, and services focused on the broadband access market. It operates under two reportable segments: Network Solutions, which includes hardware and software products, and Services & Support, which includes a portfolio of network implementation services, support services, and cloud-hosted SaaS applications that complement the product portfolio and can be utilized to support other platforms as well. These two segments span across their three revenue categories: Access & Aggregation, Subscriber Solutions, and Optical Networking Solutions.
Executives
| Ulrich Dopfer |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
901 EXPLORER BOULEVARD, HUNTSVILLE AL 35806 |
| Thomas R Stanton |
officer: Vice President & Gen. Mgr. |
C/O ADTRAN, 901 EXPLORER BLVD., HUNTSVILLE AL 35806 |
| Gregory James Mccray |
director |
422 HANDEL COURT, WHEATON IL 60187 |
| Wilson James Denson Jr |
officer: Chief Revenue Officer |
901 EXPLORER BLVD, HUNTSVILLE AL 35806 |
| Christoph Glingener |
officer: CEO of ADVA |
901 EXPLORER BOULEVARD, HUNTSVILLE AL 35806 |
| Michael Foliano |
officer: CFO |
901 EXPLORER BLVD, HUNTSVILLE AL 35806 |
| Brian Protiva |
director, officer: CEO of ADVA |
901 EXPLORER BOULEVARD, HUNTSVILLE AL 35806 |
| James Denson Wilson Jr |
Chief Revenue Officer |
|
| Nikos Theodosopoulos |
director |
C/O ARISTA NETWORKS, INC., 5453 GREAT AMERICA PARKWAY, SANTA CLARA CA 95054 |
| Johanna Hey |
director |
901 EXPLORER BOULEVARD, HUNTSVILLE AL 35806 |
| Marc Kimpe |
officer: SVP, Research & Development |
131 HERITAGE LANE, MADISON AL 35758 |
| Ray Harris |
officer: Chief Information Officer |
9811 RITCHIE CT, IJAMSVILLE MD 21754 |
| Balan Nair |
director |
901 EXPLORER BOULEVARD, HUNTSVILLE AL 35806 |
| Robert Conger |
officer: SVP, Technology & Strategy |
901 EXPLORER BLVD, HUNTSVILLE AL 35806 |
| Eduard Scheiterer |
officer: SVP, Research & Development |
901 EXPLORER DRIVE, HUNTSVILLE AL 35806 |
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