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AEON Biopharma (AEON Biopharma) Predictability Rank


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What is AEON Biopharma Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AEON Biopharma Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

AEON Biopharma Predictability Rank Related Terms

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AEON Biopharma (AEON Biopharma) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » AEON Biopharma Inc (AMEX:AEON) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
RENB FATE IMRX LCTX ENTA SCPH ATAI CRMD MCRB STOK OCSE:NOVO B VRTX REGN ASX:CSL SGEN XKRX:207940 MRNA XBRU:ARGX HKSE:02269 BNTX
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
4040 MacArthur Boulevard, Suite 260, Newport Beach, CA, USA, 92660
Website
https://www.aeonbiopharma.com
AEON Biopharma Inc is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing of its proprietary botulinum toxin complex ABP-450 (prabotulinumtoxinA) injection for therapeutic indications.
Executives
Strathspey Crown Holdings Group, Llc 10 percent owner 4040 MACARTHUR BLVD., SUITE 210, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Priveterra Sponsor, Llc 10 percent owner 300 SE 2ND STREET, SUITE 600, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301
Daewoong Co., Ltd 10 percent owner 244, GALMACHI-RO, JUNGWON-GU, SEONGNAM-SI, GYEONGGI-DO M5 13211
Alexander Blair Wilson officer: Exec VP, CLO & Corp Secretary 5 PARK PLAZA, SUITE 1750, IRVINE CA 92614
Chad Oh officer: Chief Medical Officer C/O AEON BIOPHARMA, INC., 4040 MACARTHUR BOULEVARD, SUITE 250, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Marc Forth director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O AEON BIOPHARMA, INC., 4040 MACARTHUR BLVD., SUITE 260, NEWPOER BEACH CA 92660
Jost Fischer director C/O AEON BIOPHARMA, INC., 4040 MACARTHUR BOULEVARD, SUITE 250, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Oleg Grodnensky 10 percent owner 300 SE 2ND STREET, SUITE 600, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301
Vikram Malik 10 percent owner 17901 VON KARMAN AVENUE, SUITE 150, IRVINE CA 92614
Peter A Reynolds officer: Chief Financial Officer 27442 PORTOLA PARKWAY, SUITE 200, FOOTHILL RANCH CA 92610
Robert J Palmisano director, 10 percent owner 110 HARTWELL AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02173
Shelley B Thunen director C/O RXSIGHT, INC., 100 COLUMBIA, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656
Eric G Carter director C/O KING PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 501 FIFTH STREET, BRISTOL TN 37620
Plc Barclays 10 percent owner 1 CHURCHILL PLACE, CANARY WHARF, LONDON X0 E14 5HP
David Meredith officer: Chief Legal Officer&Secretary 300 SE 2ND STREET, SUITE 600, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301