AESI (Atlas Energy Solutions) Predictability Rank

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What is Atlas Energy Solutions Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Atlas Energy Solutions Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Atlas Energy Solutions Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Atlas Energy Solutions Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Atlas Energy Solutions Inc (NYSE:AESI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5918 West Courtyard Drive, Suite 500, Austin, TX, USA, 78730

Website

https://www.atlas.energy

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc is a provider of proppant and logistics services to the oil and natural gas industry within the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, the most active oil and natural gas basin in North America. Proppant is necessary to facilitate the recovery of hydrocarbons from oil and natural gas wells. One hundred percent of its sand reserves are located in Winkler and Ward Counties, Texas, within the Permian Basin, and its operations consist of proppant production and processing facilities, including two facilities near Kermit, Texas, and a third facility near Monahans, Texas.

Executives

Gregory M Shepard	director, other: Member of 10% Owner Group	7028 PORTMARNOCK PLACE, LAKEWOOD RANCH FL 34202
Ben M Brigham	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	6300 BRIDGE POINT PKWY, BLDG 2 STE 500, AUSTIN TX 78730
Stacy Hock	director	3331 WESTLAKE DRIVE, AUSTIN TX 78746
Brian Anthony Leveille	other: Member of 10% Owner Group	5918 W COURTYARD DRIVE, SUITE 500, AUSTIN TX 78730
Richard W Schmidt	other: Member of 10% Owner Group.	5410 BEE CAVE ROAD, AUSTIN TX 78746
Chad M. Mcever	other: Member of 10% Owner Group	THREE RIVERWAY, SUITE 1350, HOUSTON TX 77056
Kirk Edwards Ginn	other: Member of 10% Owner Group	5918 W COURTYARD DRIVE, SUITE 500, AUSTIN TX 78730
Jeffrey L Allison	officer: EVP, Sales & Marketing	5918 W. COURTYARD DRIVE, SUITE 500, AUSTIN TX 78730
John Gregory Turner	officer: See Remarks	5918 W. COURTYARD DRIVE, SUITE 500, AUSTIN TX 78730
Dathan C Voelter	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	5918 W. COURTYARD DRIVE, SUITE 500, AUSTIN TX 78730
Joel Hock	other: Member of 10% Owner Group"	3331 WESTLAKE DRIVE, AUSTIN TX 78746
Camcole Consultants, Llc	other: Member of 10% Owner Group	2203 GULF AVENUE, MIDLAND TX 79705
Sealy & Smith Foundation	10 percent owner	2200 MARKET STREET, SUITE 500, GALVESTON TX 77550
Douglas G Rogers	director	2200 MARKET STREET, SUITE 500, GALVESTON TX 77550
Atlas Sand Management Co Ii, Llc	10 percent owner	5918 W. COURTYARD DRIVE, SUITE 500, AUSTIN TX 78730