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AFB (Alliancebernstein National Muni Fd) Predictability Rank


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What is Alliancebernstein National Muni Fd Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Alliancebernstein National Muni Fd Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Alliancebernstein National Muni Fd Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Alliancebernstein National Muni Fd Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
66 Hudson Boulevard East, New York, NY, USA, 10005
Alliancebernstein National Muni Inc Fd is a diversified, closed-end management investment company. It seeks to provide high current income exempt from regular federal income tax by investing substantially all of its net assets in municipal securities that pay interest that is exempt from federal income tax.
Executives
Banc Of America Preferred Funding Corp 10 percent owner 214 NORTH TRYON STREET, CHARLOTTE NC 28255
Wells Fargo & Company/mn 10 percent owner 420 MONTGOMERY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94163
Wells Fargo Municipal Capital Strategies, Llc 10 percent owner 375 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10152
Daryl Clements officer: VP & Portfolio Manager 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Andrew Potter officer: VP & Portfolio Manager 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Garry L Moody director 10951 GULF SHORE DRIVE, APT. 1201, NAPLES FL 34108
Joan M Lammtennant other: Director of Fund's Adviser 40 WANTAGE AVE, BRANCHVILLE NJ 07890
Marshall C Turner director 220 MONTGOMERY ST, PENTHOUSE 10, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Todd Walthall other: Director of Fund's Adviser C/O ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Onur Erzan director, officer: President & CEO C/O ALLIANCE BERNSTEIN L.P., 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Jeanette W Loeb director 895 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10075
Karl Sprules other: Head GTO of Fund's Adviser C/O ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Carol Mcmullen director 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Bertram L Scott other: Director of Fund's Adviser C/O BECTON DICKERSON & CO, 1 BECTON DR, FRANKLIN LAKES NJ 07417
Nella Domenici other: Director of Fund's Adviser C/O ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105