AFB (Alliancebernstein National Muni Fd) Predictability Rank

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What is Alliancebernstein National Muni Fd Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Alliancebernstein National Muni Fd Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Alliancebernstein National Muni Fd Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Alliancebernstein National Muni Inc Fd (NYSE:AFB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

66 Hudson Boulevard East, New York, NY, USA, 10005

Website

https://www.abfunds.com

Alliancebernstein National Muni Inc Fd is a diversified, closed-end management investment company. It seeks to provide high current income exempt from regular federal income tax by investing substantially all of its net assets in municipal securities that pay interest that is exempt from federal income tax.

Executives

Banc Of America Preferred Funding Corp	10 percent owner	214 NORTH TRYON STREET, CHARLOTTE NC 28255
Wells Fargo & Company/mn	10 percent owner	420 MONTGOMERY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94163
Wells Fargo Municipal Capital Strategies, Llc	10 percent owner	375 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10152
Daryl Clements	officer: VP & Portfolio Manager	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Andrew Potter	officer: VP & Portfolio Manager	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Garry L Moody	director	10951 GULF SHORE DRIVE, APT. 1201, NAPLES FL 34108
Joan M Lammtennant	other: Director of Fund's Adviser	40 WANTAGE AVE, BRANCHVILLE NJ 07890
Marshall C Turner	director	220 MONTGOMERY ST, PENTHOUSE 10, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Todd Walthall	other: Director of Fund's Adviser	C/O ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Onur Erzan	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O ALLIANCE BERNSTEIN L.P., 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Jeanette W Loeb	director	895 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10075
Karl Sprules	other: Head GTO of Fund's Adviser	C/O ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Carol Mcmullen	director	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Bertram L Scott	other: Director of Fund's Adviser	C/O BECTON DICKERSON & CO, 1 BECTON DR, FRANKLIN LAKES NJ 07417
Nella Domenici	other: Director of Fund's Adviser	C/O ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105