AfterNext HealthTech Acquisition (AfterNext HealthTech Acquisition) Predictability Rank

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What is AfterNext HealthTech Acquisition Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AfterNext HealthTech Acquisition Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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AfterNext HealthTech Acquisition (AfterNext HealthTech Acquisition) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » AfterNext HealthTech Acquisition Corp (NYSE:AFTR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

301 Commerce Street, Suite 3300, City Fort Worth, TX, USA, 76102

Website

AfterNext HealthTech Acquisition Corp is a blank check company.

Executives

Jon Winkelried	director, 10 percent owner	C/O GOLDMAN, SACHS & CO., 85 BROAD STREET, NEW YORK NY 10004
Tpg Gp A, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
R Halsey Wise	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	135 PONTE VEDRA BLVD, PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL 32082
Julie L. Gerberding	director	2000 GALLOPING HILL ROAD, KENILWORTH NJ 07033
David Bonderman	director, 10 percent owner	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
James G Coulter	director, 10 percent owner	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Tpg Group Holdings (sbs) Advisors, Inc.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O TPG GLOBAL, LLC, 301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Jeffrey K. Rhodes	director	C/O TPG GLOBAL, LLC, 301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Christopher H. Hunter	director	500 W MAIN STREET, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Bharat Sundaram	director	100 NORTH POINT CENTER EAST, SUITE 200, ALPHARETTA GA 30022
Martin Davidson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O TPG PACE ENERGY HOLDINGS CORP., 301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Nehal Raj	director	C/O TPG GLOBAL, LLC, 301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Anthony Jr Colaluca	director, officer: President	MULTIPLAN CORPORATION, 115 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10003
William Joseph Miller	director	4800 N. SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 6000, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85251
Agneta G. Breitenstein	director	C/OAFTERNEXT HEALTHTECH ACQUISITION CORP, 301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102

AfterNext HealthTech Acquisition (AfterNext HealthTech Acquisition) Headlines

From GuruFocus

AfterNext HealthTech Acquisition Corp. Announces the Separate Trading of Its Class A Ordinary Shares and Warrants Commencing October 4, 2021

By Business Wire Business Wire • 09-29-2021

AfterNext HealthTech Acquisition Corp. Announces Closing of $250 Million Initial Public Offering

By Business Wire Business Wire • 08-16-2021