Authentic Holdings (Authentic Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Authentic Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Authentic Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Authentic Holdings (Authentic Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories » Authentic Holdings Inc (OTCPK:AHRO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

50 Division Street, Suite 501, Somerville, NJ, USA, 08873

Website

https://www.globalfibertechnologies.com

Authentic Holdings Inc formerly Global Fiber Technologies Inc operates through two separate subsidiaries one of the subsidiary named Authentic Heroes is into has patented technology that takes the original event worn apparel from an iconic individual and creates "Fan-wear" collectibles containing fibers from that original. This subsidiary also in the business of creating vinyl records for distribution into retail department stores and online sales. Another subsidiary named Ecotek360 its in development stage which plans on offering branded fabrics, apparel and uniforms to the corporate, hotel, hospital and military markets.

Executives

Peter J Vazquez	officer: Secretary	18 HOOK MOUNTAIN ROAD, SUITE 201, PINE BROOK NJ 07058
Paul Serbiak	director	50 DIVISION STREET, SOMERVILLE NJ 08876
Jonathan Schultz	10 percent owner	35602 NE AMMETER ROAD, WASHOUGAL WA 98671
Chris Giordano	director	32 BRIDGES RD, STE 330, FAIRFIELD NJ 07006
Donald J Trump	10 percent owner	725 FIFTH AVENUE, 24TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10022
Michael A Jacobson	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	C/O PREMIERE PUBLISHING GROUP, INC., 386 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 16TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Damm Al Van	officer: Controller and P.F.O.	C/O PREMIERE PUBLISHING GROUP, INC., 386 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 16TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016