What is Albany International Predictability Rank?
2.5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Albany International Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Albany International Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
216 Airport Drive, Rochester, NH, USA, 03867
Albany International Corp is principally engaged in processing textiles and materials. The company consists of two business segments, the machine clothing segment, which produces and provides custom-designed fabrics and belts for the production in the paper, nonwovens, and other process industries; and the Albany engineered composites segment, which offers engineered composite parts for the aerospace and defensive industries. The machine clothing segment contributes to the majority of the company's total revenue. The company has an operation and generates revenue from the United States, Switzerland, Brazil, China, Mexico, France, and other areas.
Executives
| Gunnar Kleveland |
director, officer: President and CEO |
C/O ALBANY INTERNATIONAL CORP., 216 AIRPORT DRIVE, ROCHESTER NH 03867 |
| Joseph M Gaug |
officer: VP-General Counsel & Secretary |
C/O ALBANY INTERNATIONAL CORP., P.O. BOX 1907, ALBANY NY 12201-1907 |
| Robert Alan Hansen |
officer: Senior Vice President & CTO |
C/O ALBANY INTERNATIONAL CORP, PO BOX 1907, ALBANY NY 12201-1907 |
| Robert D. Starr |
officer: CFO & Treasurer |
10 STOCKBRIDGE DRIVE, AVON CT 06001 |
| John J Tedone |
officer: VP - Controller & CAO |
501 DUNN ROAD, COVENTRY CT 06238 |
| Elisabeth Indriani |
officer: CAO & Corporate Controller |
C/O ALBANY INTERNATIONAL CORP., 216 AIRPORT DRIVE, ROCHESTER NH 03867 |
| John Michael Mcquade |
director |
C/O ALBANY INTERNATIONAL CORP, 216 AIRPORT DRIVE, ROCHESTER NH 03867 |
| Erland E Kailbourne |
director |
C/O RAND CAPITAL CORP, 2200 RAND BUILDING, BUFFFALO NY 14203 |
| Katharine Plourde |
director |
120 EAST END AVE, NEW YORK NY 10028 |
| Russell Toney |
director |
3005 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 200, DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515 |
| Christina M Alvord |
director |
1200 URBAN CENTER DRIVE, BIRMINGHAM AL 35242 |
| Daniel A Halftermeyer |
officer: President, MC |
C/O ALBANY INTERNATIONAL CORP., P.O. BOX 1907, ALBANY NY 12201-1907 |
| Christine L Standish |
director |
C/O ALBANY INTERNATIONAL CORP, PO BOX 1907, ALBANY NY 12201-1907 |
| Gregory N Harwell |
officer: President- AEC |
C/O ALBANY INTERNATIONAL CORP., 216 AIRPORT DRIVE, ROCHESTER NH 03867 |
| Alice Mccarvill |
officer: Exec VP Human Resources |
C/O ALBANY INTERNATIONAL CORP., 216 AIRPORT DRIVE, ROCHESTER NH 03867 |
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