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Air Methods (Air Methods) Predictability Rank


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What is Air Methods Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Air Methods Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Air Methods Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Air Methods's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Air Methods (Air Methods) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Air Methods Corp is a Delaware corporation, was established in Colorado in 1982. The Company provides air medical emergency transport services and systems throughout the United States of America. It designs, manufactures, and installs medical aircraft interiors and other aerospace and medical transport products. The Company also provides tourism operations in and around the Grand Canyon and Hawaiian Islands. The Company's operating segments include Air Medical Services, Tourism Division and United Rotorcraft. Air Medical Services provides air medical transportation services to the general population as an independent service and to hospitals or other institutions under exclusive operating agreements. The division operates 380 helicopters and 26 fixed wing aircraft under both Instrument Flight Rules and Visual Flight Rules. Tourism Division provides helicopter tours and charter flights, mainly focusing on Grand Canyon and Hawaiian Island tours. The division operates 48 helicopters under two Part 135 Air Carrier Certificates. United Rotorcraft Division designs, manufactures, and installs aircraft medical interiors and other aerospace and medical transport products for domestic and international customers. The Company maintains patents covering several products, including the Litter Lift System used in the U.S. Army's HH-60M helicopter and Medical Evacuation Vehicle, and the Articulating Patient Loading System and Modular Equipment Frame developed as part of the modular interior concept. The Company competes with several national and regional air medical transportation providers for contracts with hospitals and other healthcare institutions. It also competes with larger aerial tourism operators in the Grand Canyon market and a number of smaller operators in both the Grand Canyon and Hawaiian Island markets. The Company is subject to the Federal Aviation Act of 1958. All of its flight and maintenance operations-including equipment, ground facilities, dispatch, communications, flight training personnel and other matters affecting air safety are regulated and actively supervised by the U.S. Department of Transportation through the FAA. It is also subject to laws, regulations, and standards relating to corporate governance and public disclosure, including the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regulations, NASDAQ Stock Market rules, and other federal and state securities laws.
Executives
Mark D Carleton director 12300 LIBERTY BLVD., ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Joseph E Whitters director
Claire M Gulmi director
Peter P. Csapo officer: Chief Financial Officer ACCRETIVE HEALTH, INC. 401 NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 2700 CHICAGO IL 60611
Crystal L Gordon officer: General Counsel and Secretary 945 BUNKER HILL, SUITE 650, HOUSTON TX 77024
David Roehr director ONE CABELA DRIVE, SIDNEY NE 69160

Air Methods (Air Methods) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Air Methods Corp. (AIRM) CEO Aaron D Todd sells 1,650 Shares

By GuruFocus Research GuruFocus Editor 10-16-2009

Air Methods Corp. Reports Operating Results (10-Q)

By gurufocus 10qk 05-07-2010

Mario Gabelli's 8 Largest 2nd-Quarter Sells

By Tiziano Frateschi Tiziano Frateschi 08-24-2017

Air Methods Reports Strong Quarterly Earnings

By Mrinalini Chaudhuri Mrinalini Chaudhuri 01-25-2016

Air Methods Corp. (AIRM) CFO Trent Carman sells 5,000 Shares

By GuruFocus Research GuruFocus Editor 03-16-2011

Air Methods Corp. (AIRM) CEO Aaron D Todd sells 1,650 Shares

By GuruFocus Research GuruFocus Editor 09-16-2009

Air Methods Corporation Is Growing

By Mrinalini Chaudhuri Mrinalini Chaudhuri 02-28-2016

Air Methods Corp. (AIRM) CEO Aaron D Todd sells 1,650 Shares

By GuruFocus Research GuruFocus Editor 11-19-2009