ALEX (Alexander & Baldwin) Predictability Rank

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What is Alexander & Baldwin Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Alexander & Baldwin Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Alexander & Baldwin Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Alexander & Baldwin Inc (NYSE:ALEX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ABU:Germany

Address

822 Bishop Street, Post Office Box 3440, Honolulu, HI, USA, 96801

Website

https://www.alexanderbaldwin.com

Alexander & Baldwin Inc is a Hawaii commercial real estate company. The group owns, operates, and manages million square feet of retail, industrial, and office space in Hawaii. It is a real estate investment trust (REIT) and the owner of grocery and drug-anchored retail centers in the state. It functions through two segments namely Commercial Real Estate and Land Operations. The Commercial Real Estate segment owns and manages retail, industrial spaces, and also urban ground leases in Hawaii, thereby accounting for a majority of the company's revenue. The Land Operations segment actively manages the company's land and real estate-related assets and makes optimum utilization of these assets. Geographically, the activities are carried out across the United States.

Executives

Meredith J Ching	officer: Sr. Vice Pres. Gov't Rel.	822 BISHOP ST., HONOLULU HI 96813
Kimura Shelee M.t.	director	C/O P.O. BOX 730, HONOLULU HI 96808
Jeffrey W Pauker	officer: EVP, Chief Investment Officer	822 BISHOP STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813
Anthony J Tommasino	officer: Principal accounting officer	822 BISHOP STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813
Derek T Kanehira	officer: Senior Vice President	822 BISHOP STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813
Scott G Morita	officer: Vice President & Corp Counsel	822 BISHOP STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813
Jerrod M Schreck	officer: Exec VP; President of subsid.	822 BISHOP STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813
Chun Nelson N S	director, officer: Sr. Vice Pres. & CLO	822 BISHOP STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813
John T Leong	director	822 BISHOP STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813
Douglas M Pasquale	director	245 FICHER AVE STE D-1, COSTA MESA CA 92626
Christopher J Benjamin	officer: President of affiliate	822 BISHOP STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813
Robert S Harrison	director	999 BISHOP STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813
Brett A Brown	officer: CFO and Exec. Vice President	C/O INLAND REAL ESTATE CORPORATION, 2901 BUTTERFIELD ROAD, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Stanley M Kuriyama	director, officer: Pres. & CEO	822 BISHOP ST., HONOLULU HI 96813
Doane W Allen Jr	director	822 BISHOP ST., HONOLULU HI 96813