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ALGM (Allegro Microsystems) Predictability Rank


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What is Allegro Microsystems Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Allegro Microsystems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Allegro Microsystems Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Allegro Microsystems's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Allegro Microsystems Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Allegro Microsystems Inc (NAS:ALGM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
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Traded in Other Exchanges
6V5:Germany
Address
955 Perimeter Road, Manchester, NH, USA, 03103
Website
https://www.allegromicro.com
Allegro Microsystems Inc is a designer, developer, fabless manufacturer, and marketer of sensor ICs and application-specific analog power ICs for automotive and industrial markets. Its Sensor IC allows customers to precisely measure motion, speed, position, and current, and Power ICs include high-temperature and high-voltage capable motor drivers, power management, and LED driver ICs. Its products are divided into three categories such as SENSE which includes Current Sensors, Switches and Latches, and Interface ICs among others; REGULATE which includes Regulators, ClearPower Modules, and LED Drivers; and DRIVE which includes BLDC Drivers, Brush DC, and others. Key revenue for the company is generated from Greater China and the rest from the United States, Japan, Europe, and other regions.
Executives
Michael Doogue officer: SVP, CTO C/O ALLEGRO MICROSYSTEMS, INC., 955 PERIMETER ROAD, MANCHESTER NH 03103
Vineet A Nargolwala director, officer: President and CEO 529 PLEASANT STREET, MAIL STATION B-1, ATTLEBORO MA 02703
Sanken Electric Co., Ltd. 10 percent owner C/O ALLEGRO MICROSYSTEMS, INC., 955 PERIMETER ROAD, MANCHESTER NH 03103
Richard R. Lury director C/O ALLEGRO MICROSYSTEMS, INC., 955 PERIMETER ROAD, MANCHESTER NH 03103
Max R. Glover officer: SVP of Worldwide Sales C/O ALLEGRO MICROSYSTEMS, INC., 955 PERIMETER ROAD, MANCHESTER NH 03103
Mary G Puma director AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES INC., 108 CHERRY HILL DRIVE, BEVERLY MA 01915
Derek D'antilio officer: SVP, CFO & Treasurer C/O ALLEGRO MICROSYSTEMS, INC., 955 PERIMETER ROAD, MANCHESTER NH 03103
Joseph R Martin director
Suman Narayan officer: SVP, Products 955 PERIMETER ROAD, MANCHESTER NH 03103
Sharon Briansky officer: SVP, GC and Secretary C/O ALLEGRO MICROSYSTEMS, INC., 955 PERIMETER ROAD, MANCHESTER NH 03103
Roald Graham Webster officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer 955 PERIMETER RD, MANCHESTER NH 03103
Susan D Lynch director 2424 GARDEN OF THE GODS ROAD, SUITE 300, COLORADO SPRINGS CO 80919
Oep Skna, L.p. 10 percent owner 510 MADISON AVENUE, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Joanne Valente officer: SVP, CHRO C/O ALLEGRO MICROSYSTEMS, INC., 955 PERIMETER ROAD, MANCHESTER NH 03103
Katsumi Kawashima director 955 PERIMETER ROAD, MANCHESTER NH 03103