ALGS (Aligos Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Aligos Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Aligos Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Aligos Therapeutics Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Aligos Therapeutics Inc (NAS:ALGS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

5WK0:Germany

Address

One Corporate Drive, 2nd Floor, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080

Website

https://www.aligos.com

Aligos Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. It is engaged in developing novel therapeutics to address unmet medical needs in viral and liver diseases, including chronic hepatitis B and coronaviruses, and therapeutics for nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). The company's pipeline includes ALG-010133, ALG-000184, ALG-020572 and ALG-055009, among others.

Executives

Roche Finance Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O HOFFMAN LA ROCHE, 124 GRENSACHERSTRASSE CH 4002, BASEL SWITZERLAND V8
Roche Holding Ltd	10 percent owner	ROCHE HOLDING, LTD., GRENZACHERSTRASSE 124, BASEL V8 CH-4070
Carole Nuechterlein	director	C/O AVEXIS, INC., 2275 HALF DAY ROAD, SUITE 160, BANNOCKBURN IL 60015
Matthew W. Mcclure	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ALIGOS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1 CORPORATE DRIVE, 2ND FLOOR, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Bridget A Martell	director	C/O POINT BIOPHARMA GLOBAL INC., 4850 WEST 78TH STREET, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46268
James Paul Scopa	director	601 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, SUITE 350, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Thomas Woiwode	director	ONE SANSOME STREET, SUITE 1650, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Vivo Capital Fund Viii, L.p.	10 percent owner	505 HAMILTON AVENUE, SUITE 200, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Novo Holdings A/s	10 percent owner	TUBORG HAVNEVEJ 19, HELLERUP G7 2900
Versant Venture Capital Vi, L.p.	10 percent owner	ONE SANSOME STREET, SUITE 1650, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Vivo Capital Surplus Fund Viii, L.p.	10 percent owner	505 HAMILTON AVENUE, SUITE 200, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Julian A. Symons	officer: See Remarks	C/O ALIGOS THERAPEUTICS, INC., ONE CORPORATE DRIVE, 2ND FLOOR, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Leonid Beigelman	director, officer: President	C/O ALIGOS THERAPEUTICS, INC., ONE CORPORATE DRIVE, 2ND FLOOR, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Lucinda Y. Quan	officer: See Remarks	C/O ALIGOS THERAPEUTICS, INC., ONE CORPORATE DRIVE, 2ND FLOOR, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Lawrence Blatt	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer