Allegion (Allegion) Predictability Rank

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What is Allegion Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Allegion Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Allegion Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Allegion (Allegion) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Allegion PLC (NYSE:ALLE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

A1GN34:Brazil

Address

Harcourt Road, Iveagh Court, Block D, Dublin 2, IRL, D02 VH94

Website

https://www.allegion.com

Allegion is a global security products company with a portfolio of leading brands such as Schlage, Von Duprin, and LCN. The Ireland-domiciled company was created via a spinoff transaction from Ingersoll-Rand in December 2013. In fiscal 2022, Allegion generated 73% of sales in the United States. The company mainly competes with Sweden-based Assa Abloy and Switzerland-based Dormakaba.

Executives

Robert C. Martens	officer: SVP Chief Innovation & Design	C/O SCHLAGE LOCK COMPANY LLC, 11819 N. PENNSYLVANIA STREET, CARMEL IN 46032
Sue Main	director	TELEDYNE TECHNOLOGIES INCORPORATED, 1049 CAMINO DOS RIOS, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91360
Jennifer L Preczewski	officer: VP ? Chief HR Officer	C/O SCHLAGE LOCK COMPANY LLC, 11819 N. PENNSYLVANIA STREET, CARMEL IN 46032
John H Stone	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O SCHLAGE LOCK COMPANY LLC, 11819 N. PENNSYLVANIA STREET, CARMEL IN 46032
Jeffrey N Braun	officer: SVP & General Counsel	C/O SCHLAGE LOCK COMPANY LLC, 11819 N. PENNSYLVANIA STREET, CARMEL IN 46032
Ellen Rubin	director	11 CLEMENTS ROAD, NEWTON MA 02458
Timothy P Eckersley	officer: Sr. VP-Allegion International	C/O SCHLAGE LOCK COMPANY, LLC, 11819 N. PENNSYLVANIA STREET, CARMEL IN 46032
Tracy L Kemp	officer: Sr. Vice President	C/O SCHLAGE LOCK COMPANY LLC, 11819 N PENNSYLVANIA ST, CARMEL IN 46032
Michael J. Wagnes	officer: Sr. VP & CFO	C/O SCHLAGE LOCK COMPANY LLC, 11819 N. PENNSYLVANIA STREET, CARMEL IN 46032
David S. Ilardi	officer: SVP - Allegion Americas	C/O SCHLAGE LOCK COMPANY LLC, 11819 N. PENNSYLVANIA STREET, CARMEL IN 46032
Nickolas A. Musial	officer: VP, Controller & CAO	C/O SCHLAGE LOCK COMPANY LLC, 11819 N. PENNSYLVANIA STREET, CARMEL IN 46032
David D Petratis	officer: President & CEO	1415 ROSELLE ROAD, PALATINE IL 60067
Douglas P Ranck	officer: V. President/Controller	C/O SCHLAGE LOCK COMPANY, LLC, 11819 N. PENNSYLVANIA STREET, CARMEL IN 46032
Patrick S Shannon	director, officer: Sr. V. President & CFO	C/O SCHLAGE LOCK COMPANY, LLC, 11819 N. PENNSYLVANIA STREET, CARMEL IN 46032
Lauren B Peters	director	FOOT LOCKER INC, 112 WEST 34TH STREET 4TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10120