ALLGF (Allego NV) Predictability Rank

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What is Allego NV Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Allego NV Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Allego NV Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Allego NV (OTCPK:ALLGF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Industriepark Kleefse Waard, Westervoortsedijk 73 KB, Arnhem, NLD, 6827 AV

Website

https://www.allego.eu

Allego NV is a provider of electric vehicle charging solutions, dedicated to accelerating the transition to electric mobility with 100% renewable energy. It developed a comprehensive portfolio of innovative charging infrastructure and proprietary software, including its Allamo and EV Cloud software platforms. With a network of 30,000 charging points spanning 16 countries, Allego delivers independent, reliable, and safe charging solutions, agnostic of vehicle model or network affiliation.

Executives

Matthew J. Smith	director	9 WEST 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Apollo Principal Holdings Iii Gp Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O INTERTRUST CORPORATE SERVICES, (CAYMAN) LIMITED, 190 ELGIN STREET, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1-9005
J Michael Stice	director	525 CENTRAL PARK DRIVE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73105
Wilson B Handler	director	C/O ATHLON ENERGY INC., 420 THROCKMORTON STREET, SUITE 1200, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Olivia C Wassenaar	director	170 EAST 79TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10075
Aph Holdings, L.p.	10 percent owner	ONE MANHATTANVILLE ROAD, SUITE 201, PURCHASE NY 10577
Geoffrey Strong	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O APOLLO MANAGEMENT, 9 W. 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Christine Hommes	director	500 DALLAS STREET, SUITE 2000, HOUSTON TX 77002
Jan C. Wilson	director	18 A HAZELTON AVE., SUITE 606, TORONTO A6 M5R 2E2
James Crossen	officer: see remarks	9 WEST 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Apollo Anrp Advisors Iii, L.p.	10 percent owner	9 WEST 57TH ST., 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Apollo Anrp Capital Management Iii, Llc	10 percent owner	9 WEST 57TH ST., 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Joseph Romeo	director	9 WEST 57TH ST, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Spartan Acquisition Sponsor Iii Llc	10 percent owner	9 WEST 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Ap Spartan Energy Holdings Iii, L.p.	10 percent owner	1 MANHATTANVILLE ROAD, SUITE 201, PURCHASE NY 10577