Allogene Therapeutics (Allogene Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Allogene Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Allogene Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Allogene Therapeutics (Allogene Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Allogene Therapeutics Inc (NAS:ALLO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

210 East Grand Avenue, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080

Website

https://www.allogene.com

Allogene Therapeutics Inc is a United States-based clinical stage immuno-oncology company. It is mainly engaged in the development and commercialization of genetically engineered allogeneic T cell therapies for the treatment of cancer. The company is involved in developing a pipeline of multiple allogeneic T cell product candidates utilizing validated gene editing and advanced proprietary cell manufacturing technologies. Its pipeline includes UCART19 which is developed for the treatment of relapsed or refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), as well as several preclinical allogeneic CAR T therapies.

Executives

Deborah M. Messemer	director	C/O ALLOGENE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 210 EAST GRAND AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Geoffrey M. Parker	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	15 RIORDAN PLACE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Earl Martin Douglas	officer: GENERAL COUNSEL	BIOMIMETIC THERAPEUTICS, INC., 389 NICHOL MILL LANE, FRANKLIN TN 37067
Yinlin Jack Chen	officer: SVP, Finance	210 EAST GRAND AVE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Stephen Mayo	director	2000 GALLOPING HILL RD, KENILWORTH NJ 07033
Timothy L. Moore	officer: Chief Technical Officer	C/O KITE PHARMA, INC., 2225 COLORADO AVE., SANTA MONICA CA 90404
Lillian Smith	officer: VP, Corporate Counsel	210 EAST GRAND AVE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Veer Bhavnagri	officer: General Counsel	C/O ALLOGENE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 210 E. GRAND AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Zachary Roberts	officer: EVP of R&D	C/O INSTIL BIO, INC., 3963 MAPLE AVENUE, SUITE 350, DALLAS TX 75219
Owen N. Witte	director	C/O ALLOGENE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 210 EAST GRAND AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Rafael Amado	officer: EVP of R&D and CMO	210 EAST GRAND AVE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Alison Moore	officer: Chief Technical Officer	C/O ALLOGENE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 210 EAST GRAND AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Eric Thomas Schmidt	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ALLOGENE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 210 EAST GRAND AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
David D Chang	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O ALLOGENE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 210 EAST GRAND AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Jon Winkelried	10 percent owner	C/O GOLDMAN, SACHS & CO., 85 BROAD STREET, NEW YORK NY 10004