What is Allarity Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Allarity Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Allarity Therapeutics (Allarity Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
24 School Street, 2nd Floor, Boston, MA, USA
Allarity Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage, precision medicine company. The company is actively advancing a pipeline of in-licensed oncology therapeutics for patients with difficult-to-treat cancers. Its Drug Response Predictor (DRP) technology refines patient selection and improve clinical outcomes. Its pipeline product includes Dovitinib, Stenoparib, Ixempra, and other formulations.
Executives
| Laura Benjamin |
director |
168 GOODRICH ST., LUNENBURG MA 01462 |
| Joseph Walter Vazzano |
director |
1330 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Gerald W. Mclaughlin |
director |
227 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 200, CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428 |
| David Roth |
director |
C/O SYROS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 620 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Joan Yvonne Brown |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O GOLDEN PHOENIX MINERALS, INC., 1675 EAST PRATER WAY, #102, SPARKS NV 89434 |
| Steve Carchedi |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
210 BROADWAY, STE 201, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Steen Knudsen |
officer: Chief Scientific Officer |
210 BROADWAY, STE 201, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Jens Erik Knudsen |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
210 BROADWAY, STE 201, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Soren Gade Jensen |
director |
210 BROADWAY, STE 201, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Duncan Moore |
director |
C/O ASP ISOTOPES INC., 433 PLAZA REAL, SUITE 275, BOCA RATON FL 33432 |
| Thomas Jensen |
officer: SVP, Information Technology |
210 BROADWAY, STE 201, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| James G. Cullem |
officer: SVP, Chief Business Officer |
210 BROADWAY, STE 201, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Marie Foegh |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
210 BROADWAY, STE 201, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Sass & Larsen Aps |
10 percent owner |
VESTERGARDSVEJ 6, GREVE G7 DK-2670 |
| Leon Sass |
10 percent owner |
JERNBAEK ALLE 5, HELSINGE G7 DK-3200 |
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