Allot (ALLT) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2006. Start your Free Trial

What is Allot Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Allot Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Allot Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Allot's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Allot Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Allot Ltd (NAS:ALLT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ALLT:Israel 0YI6:UK AG6:Germany AG6:Germany

Address

22 Hanagar Street, Neve Ne’eman Industrial Zone B, Hod-Hasharon, ISR, 4501317

Website

https://www.allot.com

Allot Ltd is a provider of network intelligence and security solutions for service providers and enterprises. The company's solutions are deployed globally for network and application analytics, traffic control and shaping, and network-based security services. The firm's multi-service platforms are deployed by mobile, fixed, and cloud service providers and enterprises. It has a customer base in Europe, Asia and Oceania, the Americas, the Middle East, and Africa.

Executives

Gemini Israel Ii Parallel Fund Lp /ny	10 percent owner
Gemini Israel Ii Limited Partnership	10 percent owner	9 HAMENOFIM STREET, HERZLIYA PITUACH L3 46725
Gemini Israel Funds Ltd.	10 percent owner	9 HAMENOFIM STREET, HERZLIYA PITUACH L3 46725
Gemini Partners Investors L.p.	10 percent owner	9 HAMENOFIM STREET, HERZLIYA PITUACH L3 46725
Gemini Capital Associates Limited Partnership	10 percent owner	9 HAMENOFIM STREET, HERZLIYA PITUACH L3 46725
Advent Pggm Gemini Limited Partnership	10 percent owner	9 HAMENOFIM STREET, HERZLIYA PITUACH L3 46725