ALTI (AlTi Global) Predictability Rank

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What is AlTi Global Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AlTi Global Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

AlTi Global Predictability Rank Related Terms

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AlTi Global Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » AlTi Global Inc (NAS:ALTI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

520 Madison Avenue, 26th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10022

Website

https://www.alti-global.com

AlTi Global Inc is an independent wealth and asset manager providing entrepreneurs, multi-generational families, institutions, and emerging next-generation leaders with fiduciary capabilities as well as alternative investment strategies and advisory services. The firm has business which is organized into two business segments that includes Wealth Management and Strategic Alternatives. Wealth Management includes providing holistic solutions for their wealth management clients through their comprehensive range of wealth management services, including investment management and advisory services. Strategic Alternatives segment, it assists their investors with alternative investments and co-investments by providing access to highly differentiated opportunities in these areas.

Executives

Spiros Maliagros	director	C/O ALVARIUM TIEDEMANN HOLDINGS, INC., 520 MADISON AVENUE, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Ilwaddi Cayman Holdings	10 percent owner	C/O GELLER ADVISORS, 909 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Kevin P. Moran	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O ALVARIUM TIEDEMANN HOLDINGS, INC., 520 MADISON AVENUE, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Michael Tiedemann	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ALVARIUM TIEDEMANN HOLDINGS, INC., 520 MADISON AVENUE, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Timothy F Keaney	director	1 FOUNTAIN SQUARE, LAW DEPT. 7S730, CHATTANOOGA TN 37402
Norma Corio	director	C/O GO ACQUISITION CORP., 450 W 14TH ST, NEW YORK NY 10014
Reid Parmelee	officer: Chief Financial Officer	ALTI GLOBAL, INC., 520 MADISON AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Sai Hong Yeung	10 percent owner	22/F SOUTH CHINA BUILDING, 1-3 WYNDHAM STREET, CENTRAL, HONG KONG F4 000000
Global Goldfield Ltd	10 percent owner	22/F SOUTH CHINA BUILDING, 1-3 WYNDHAM STREET, CENTRAL, HONG KONG K3 00000
Jassim Abdulaziz Al-thani	10 percent owner	C/O GELLER ADVISORS, 909 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Graham Colleen A	officer: Global General Counsel	BOSTON PRIVATE FINANCIAL HOLDINGS, INC., TEN POST OFFICE SQUARE, BOSTON MA 02109
Gregory R. Armstrong	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O CARTESIAN GROWTH CORPORATION, 505 FIFTH AVENUE, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Elias Diaz-sese	director	5505 BLUE LAGOON DRIVE, MIAMI FL 33126
Peter Yu	10 percent owner	C/O CARTESIAN CAPITAL GROUP, 505 FIFTH AVENUE, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Bertrand P. Grabowski	director	C/O CARTESIAN GROWTH CORPORATION, 505 FIFTH AVENUE, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017